A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods
This study describes the development of a reservoir inflow forecasting model for typhoon events to improve short lead-time flood forecasting performance. To strengthen the forecasting ability of the original support vector machines (SVMs) model, the self-organizing map (SOM) is adopted to group inpu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7575126 |
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| author | Gwo-Fong Lin Tsung-Chun Wang Lu-Hsien Chen |
| author_facet | Gwo-Fong Lin Tsung-Chun Wang Lu-Hsien Chen |
| author_sort | Gwo-Fong Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study describes the development of a reservoir inflow forecasting model for typhoon events to improve short lead-time flood forecasting performance. To strengthen the forecasting ability of the original support vector machines (SVMs) model, the self-organizing map (SOM) is adopted to group inputs into different clusters in advance of the proposed SOM-SVM model. Two different input methods are proposed for the SVM-based forecasting method, namely, SOM-SVM1 and SOM-SVM2. The methods are applied to an actual reservoir watershed to determine the 1 to 3 h ahead inflow forecasts. For 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts, improvements in mean coefficient of efficiency (MCE) due to the clusters obtained from SOM-SVM1 are 21.5%, 18.5%, and 23.0%, respectively. Furthermore, improvement in MCE for SOM-SVM2 is 20.9%, 21.2%, and 35.4%, respectively. Another SOM-SVM2 model increases the SOM-SVM1 model for 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts obtained improvement increases of 0.33%, 2.25%, and 10.08%, respectively. These results show that the performance of the proposed model can provide improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially in the proposed SOM-SVM2 model. In conclusion, the proposed model, which considers limit and higher related inputs instead of all inputs, can generate better forecasts in different clusters than are generated from the SOM process. The SOM-SVM2 model is recommended as an alternative to the original SVR (Support Vector Regression) model because of its accuracy and robustness. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-497d68ef47864e34a66b8fe6175c54e2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-497d68ef47864e34a66b8fe6175c54e22025-08-20T02:05:56ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172016-01-01201610.1155/2016/75751267575126A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon PeriodsGwo-Fong Lin0Tsung-Chun Wang1Lu-Hsien Chen2Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, TaiwanDepartment of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, TaiwanDepartment of Leisure Management, Taiwan Shoufu University, Tainan 72153, TaiwanThis study describes the development of a reservoir inflow forecasting model for typhoon events to improve short lead-time flood forecasting performance. To strengthen the forecasting ability of the original support vector machines (SVMs) model, the self-organizing map (SOM) is adopted to group inputs into different clusters in advance of the proposed SOM-SVM model. Two different input methods are proposed for the SVM-based forecasting method, namely, SOM-SVM1 and SOM-SVM2. The methods are applied to an actual reservoir watershed to determine the 1 to 3 h ahead inflow forecasts. For 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts, improvements in mean coefficient of efficiency (MCE) due to the clusters obtained from SOM-SVM1 are 21.5%, 18.5%, and 23.0%, respectively. Furthermore, improvement in MCE for SOM-SVM2 is 20.9%, 21.2%, and 35.4%, respectively. Another SOM-SVM2 model increases the SOM-SVM1 model for 1, 2, and 3 h ahead forecasts obtained improvement increases of 0.33%, 2.25%, and 10.08%, respectively. These results show that the performance of the proposed model can provide improved forecasts of hourly inflow, especially in the proposed SOM-SVM2 model. In conclusion, the proposed model, which considers limit and higher related inputs instead of all inputs, can generate better forecasts in different clusters than are generated from the SOM process. The SOM-SVM2 model is recommended as an alternative to the original SVR (Support Vector Regression) model because of its accuracy and robustness.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7575126 |
| spellingShingle | Gwo-Fong Lin Tsung-Chun Wang Lu-Hsien Chen A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods Advances in Meteorology |
| title | A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods |
| title_full | A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods |
| title_fullStr | A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods |
| title_short | A Forecasting Approach Combining Self-Organizing Map with Support Vector Regression for Reservoir Inflow during Typhoon Periods |
| title_sort | forecasting approach combining self organizing map with support vector regression for reservoir inflow during typhoon periods |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7575126 |
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