Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin
Forecasting rapid intensification (hereafter referred to as RI) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is still a challenge due to a limited understanding of the meteorological processes that are necessary for predicting RI. To address this challenge, this study considered large-scale processes...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2015-01-01
|
| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/814043 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850109580440240128 |
|---|---|
| author | Alexandria Grimes Andrew E. Mercer |
| author_facet | Alexandria Grimes Andrew E. Mercer |
| author_sort | Alexandria Grimes |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forecasting rapid intensification (hereafter referred to as RI) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is still a challenge due to a limited understanding of the meteorological processes that are necessary for predicting RI. To address this challenge, this study considered large-scale processes as RI indicators within tropical cyclone environments. The large-scale processes were identified by formulating composite map types of RI and non-RI storms using NASA MERRA data from 1979 to 2009. The composite fields were formulated by a blended RPCA and cluster analysis approach, yielding multiple map types of RI’s and non-RI’s. Additionally, statistical differences in the large-scale processes were identified by formulating permutation tests, based on the composite output, revealing variables that were statistically significantly distinct between RI and non-RI storms. These variables were used as input in two prediction schemes: logistic regression and support vector machine classification. Ultimately, the approach identified midlevel vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, 200–850 hPa vertical shear, low-level potential temperature, and specific humidity as the most significant in diagnosing RI, yielding modest skill in identifying RI storms. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-485fa7841d9342d9a3a4cd54e3d4cad2 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-485fa7841d9342d9a3a4cd54e3d4cad22025-08-20T02:38:02ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172015-01-01201510.1155/2015/814043814043Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic BasinAlexandria Grimes0Andrew E. Mercer1Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5448, USAMississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5448, USAForecasting rapid intensification (hereafter referred to as RI) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is still a challenge due to a limited understanding of the meteorological processes that are necessary for predicting RI. To address this challenge, this study considered large-scale processes as RI indicators within tropical cyclone environments. The large-scale processes were identified by formulating composite map types of RI and non-RI storms using NASA MERRA data from 1979 to 2009. The composite fields were formulated by a blended RPCA and cluster analysis approach, yielding multiple map types of RI’s and non-RI’s. Additionally, statistical differences in the large-scale processes were identified by formulating permutation tests, based on the composite output, revealing variables that were statistically significantly distinct between RI and non-RI storms. These variables were used as input in two prediction schemes: logistic regression and support vector machine classification. Ultimately, the approach identified midlevel vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, 200–850 hPa vertical shear, low-level potential temperature, and specific humidity as the most significant in diagnosing RI, yielding modest skill in identifying RI storms.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/814043 |
| spellingShingle | Alexandria Grimes Andrew E. Mercer Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin Advances in Meteorology |
| title | Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin |
| title_full | Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin |
| title_fullStr | Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin |
| title_short | Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Atlantic Basin |
| title_sort | synoptic scale precursors to tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the atlantic basin |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/814043 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alexandriagrimes synopticscaleprecursorstotropicalcyclonerapidintensificationintheatlanticbasin AT andrewemercer synopticscaleprecursorstotropicalcyclonerapidintensificationintheatlanticbasin |