Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights
This research presents a new mathematical structure featuring two compartments representing cows and flies. It aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), incorporating a temperature-dependent mortality rate for flies. We thoroughly examine the model to establish the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666818125001457 |
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| author | Goutam Saha Pabel Shahrear Abrar Faiyaz Amit Kumar Saha |
| author_facet | Goutam Saha Pabel Shahrear Abrar Faiyaz Amit Kumar Saha |
| author_sort | Goutam Saha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research presents a new mathematical structure featuring two compartments representing cows and flies. It aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), incorporating a temperature-dependent mortality rate for flies. We thoroughly examine the model to establish the presence of a positive solution that remains bounded. By evaluating the disease's contamination potential and inspecting the model's stability concerning both local and global equilibrium points—namely, disease-free and endemic—we calculate the reproduction number. Theoretical analysis shows that a stable disease free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the basic reproduction number is less than one implying the possibility of having backward bifurcation. Numerical simulation also supports this. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, we explore how various model parameters affect the basic reproduction number. Our numerical investigations underscore the critical importance of regulating specific parameters, such as the disease-induced mortality rate of cows, the temperature-dependent mortality rate of flies, and the rate of transition from infected to recovered cows, in effectively managing the disease system. Numerical results also show that controlling flies population and spraying adulticide, LSD spread can be prevented. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-47fdcffbcb2248a8b40200b392e96dd1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2666-8181 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics |
| spelling | doaj-art-47fdcffbcb2248a8b40200b392e96dd12025-08-20T02:28:37ZengElsevierPartial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics2666-81812025-06-011410121810.1016/j.padiff.2025.101218Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insightsGoutam Saha0Pabel Shahrear1Abrar Faiyaz2Amit Kumar Saha3Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh; Miyan Research Institute, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology, Uttara, Dhaka 1230, BangladeshDepartment of Mathematics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, BangladeshDepartment of Mathematics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, BangladeshDepartment of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh; Corresponding author.This research presents a new mathematical structure featuring two compartments representing cows and flies. It aims to comprehensively understand the dynamics of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), incorporating a temperature-dependent mortality rate for flies. We thoroughly examine the model to establish the presence of a positive solution that remains bounded. By evaluating the disease's contamination potential and inspecting the model's stability concerning both local and global equilibrium points—namely, disease-free and endemic—we calculate the reproduction number. Theoretical analysis shows that a stable disease free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the basic reproduction number is less than one implying the possibility of having backward bifurcation. Numerical simulation also supports this. Furthermore, through sensitivity analysis, we explore how various model parameters affect the basic reproduction number. Our numerical investigations underscore the critical importance of regulating specific parameters, such as the disease-induced mortality rate of cows, the temperature-dependent mortality rate of flies, and the rate of transition from infected to recovered cows, in effectively managing the disease system. Numerical results also show that controlling flies population and spraying adulticide, LSD spread can be prevented.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666818125001457Lumpy skin diseaseCows, Flies, TransmissionStabilityBifurcation |
| spellingShingle | Goutam Saha Pabel Shahrear Abrar Faiyaz Amit Kumar Saha Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights Partial Differential Equations in Applied Mathematics Lumpy skin disease Cows, Flies, Transmission Stability Bifurcation |
| title | Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights |
| title_full | Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights |
| title_short | Mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease: New perspectives and insights |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling of lumpy skin disease new perspectives and insights |
| topic | Lumpy skin disease Cows, Flies, Transmission Stability Bifurcation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666818125001457 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT goutamsaha mathematicalmodelingoflumpyskindiseasenewperspectivesandinsights AT pabelshahrear mathematicalmodelingoflumpyskindiseasenewperspectivesandinsights AT abrarfaiyaz mathematicalmodelingoflumpyskindiseasenewperspectivesandinsights AT amitkumarsaha mathematicalmodelingoflumpyskindiseasenewperspectivesandinsights |