Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model
This study aims to more accurately predict the displacement changes of landslides with nonlinear volatility development.The empirical mode decomposition is first employed to process the time series of monitoring surface displacement of a landslide,and then the irregularly changing displacement serie...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.03.013 |
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| author | CHEN Xi GAO Yaping TU Rui |
| author_facet | CHEN Xi GAO Yaping TU Rui |
| author_sort | CHEN Xi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims to more accurately predict the displacement changes of landslides with nonlinear volatility development.The empirical mode decomposition is first employed to process the time series of monitoring surface displacement of a landslide,and then the irregularly changing displacement series is converted into modal components with regular changes,which generates displacement components at different frequencies.Each component is predicted separately so that the mutual influence of errors can be avoided.The comprehensive prediction of the changing trend of displacement series is based on the prediction of the changing trends of all components.The improved threshold autoregressive model able to well describe non-stationary harmonics is used to predict the landslide displacement components.Finally,the modal superposition yields the final predicted displacement.In this way,a combined prediction model based on empirical mode decomposition and threshold autoregressive model is established,and its prediction accuracy is verified with Baishuihe landslide data.Compared with a BP neural network model and a long short-term memory network model,the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy,which provides a new method for the prediction of landslide displacement. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-479fe93339bb4f6984b7f7aee2ddaba5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-479fe93339bb4f6984b7f7aee2ddaba52025-01-15T02:26:47ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352022-01-014347644083Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined ModelCHEN XiGAO YapingTU RuiThis study aims to more accurately predict the displacement changes of landslides with nonlinear volatility development.The empirical mode decomposition is first employed to process the time series of monitoring surface displacement of a landslide,and then the irregularly changing displacement series is converted into modal components with regular changes,which generates displacement components at different frequencies.Each component is predicted separately so that the mutual influence of errors can be avoided.The comprehensive prediction of the changing trend of displacement series is based on the prediction of the changing trends of all components.The improved threshold autoregressive model able to well describe non-stationary harmonics is used to predict the landslide displacement components.Finally,the modal superposition yields the final predicted displacement.In this way,a combined prediction model based on empirical mode decomposition and threshold autoregressive model is established,and its prediction accuracy is verified with Baishuihe landslide data.Compared with a BP neural network model and a long short-term memory network model,the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy,which provides a new method for the prediction of landslide displacement.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.03.013prediction of landslide displacementempirical mode decompositionthreshold autoregressive modelcombination prediction |
| spellingShingle | CHEN Xi GAO Yaping TU Rui Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model Renmin Zhujiang prediction of landslide displacement empirical mode decomposition threshold autoregressive model combination prediction |
| title | Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model |
| title_full | Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model |
| title_short | Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on EMD-TAR Combined Model |
| title_sort | prediction of landslide displacement based on emd tar combined model |
| topic | prediction of landslide displacement empirical mode decomposition threshold autoregressive model combination prediction |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.03.013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chenxi predictionoflandslidedisplacementbasedonemdtarcombinedmodel AT gaoyaping predictionoflandslidedisplacementbasedonemdtarcombinedmodel AT turui predictionoflandslidedisplacementbasedonemdtarcombinedmodel |