Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades

Abstract Winter atmospheric rivers (ARs) are crucial for water supply and extreme weather events over the western (WUS) and eastern US (EUS), yet their long-term trends and interplay remain unclear. Here we fill this gap by analyzing multiple observational AR products over the past four decades. Con...

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Main Authors: Wenhao Dong, Ming Zhao, Zhihong Tan, V. Ramaswamy
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-03-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00998-x
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author Wenhao Dong
Ming Zhao
Zhihong Tan
V. Ramaswamy
author_facet Wenhao Dong
Ming Zhao
Zhihong Tan
V. Ramaswamy
author_sort Wenhao Dong
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Winter atmospheric rivers (ARs) are crucial for water supply and extreme weather events over the western (WUS) and eastern US (EUS), yet their long-term trends and interplay remain unclear. Here we fill this gap by analyzing multiple observational AR products over the past four decades. Contrasting yet interrelated trends emerge in AR frequency, intensity, and associated mean precipitation. A decline in AR activity over WUS contributes to a drying trend, while notable increases over EUS foster a wetter climate. These trends are driven by large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability in the Pacific, which strengthens anticyclonic circulation patterns near both coasts. These anticyclonic patterns, however, have opposing effects–impeding ARs from steering to WUS while facilitating their development over EUS. Our findings present a unified explanation for the observed AR trends and have co-beneficial implications for mitigating concerns related to AR-induced extreme events across both densely populated coastal regions.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2397-3722
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
spelling doaj-art-478dbae838544aafa7e06100f086cd412025-08-20T03:40:48ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-03-018111110.1038/s41612-025-00998-xOpposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decadesWenhao Dong0Ming Zhao1Zhihong Tan2V. Ramaswamy3Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryProgram in Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Princeton UniversityNOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryAbstract Winter atmospheric rivers (ARs) are crucial for water supply and extreme weather events over the western (WUS) and eastern US (EUS), yet their long-term trends and interplay remain unclear. Here we fill this gap by analyzing multiple observational AR products over the past four decades. Contrasting yet interrelated trends emerge in AR frequency, intensity, and associated mean precipitation. A decline in AR activity over WUS contributes to a drying trend, while notable increases over EUS foster a wetter climate. These trends are driven by large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability in the Pacific, which strengthens anticyclonic circulation patterns near both coasts. These anticyclonic patterns, however, have opposing effects–impeding ARs from steering to WUS while facilitating their development over EUS. Our findings present a unified explanation for the observed AR trends and have co-beneficial implications for mitigating concerns related to AR-induced extreme events across both densely populated coastal regions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00998-x
spellingShingle Wenhao Dong
Ming Zhao
Zhihong Tan
V. Ramaswamy
Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
title_full Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
title_fullStr Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
title_full_unstemmed Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
title_short Opposing trends in winter Atmospheric River over the Western and Eastern US during the past four decades
title_sort opposing trends in winter atmospheric river over the western and eastern us during the past four decades
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00998-x
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AT zhihongtan opposingtrendsinwinteratmosphericriveroverthewesternandeasternusduringthepastfourdecades
AT vramaswamy opposingtrendsinwinteratmosphericriveroverthewesternandeasternusduringthepastfourdecades