Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin
Study region: Indrawati River Basin (IRB) in Nepal. Study focus: We employ the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, calibrated and validated with historical data, to assess the hydrological responses of the IRB to future climate scenarios. These scenarios are projected using an ensemble of five bia...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005044 |
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| author | Surendra Maharjan Wenzhao Li Shahryar Fazli Arshad Ansari Suraj Tiwari Roma Thakurathi Rejoice Thomas Hesham El-Askary |
| author_facet | Surendra Maharjan Wenzhao Li Shahryar Fazli Arshad Ansari Suraj Tiwari Roma Thakurathi Rejoice Thomas Hesham El-Askary |
| author_sort | Surendra Maharjan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Indrawati River Basin (IRB) in Nepal. Study focus: We employ the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, calibrated and validated with historical data, to assess the hydrological responses of the IRB to future climate scenarios. These scenarios are projected using an ensemble of five bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 for three-time frames: Near Future (2025–2050), Mid Future (MF) (2051–2075), and Far Future (2076–2100). The bias correction was done using Robust Empirical Quantiles for precipitation and linear parametric transformation functions for temperature. New hydrological insights for the region: The study reveals significant shifts in the IRB's hydrological patterns, including an extended rainy season—most pronounced under SSP 5-8.5 in the MF scenario—and an increase in annual discharge, especially during the South Asian Monsoon. Notably, there is an amplified flood risk due to heightened extreme flow events. Additionally, the analysis indicates increasing risks of wildfires and landslides given the rise in pre-monsoon dry spells, which exacerbates the cascading devastation such as debris flow. These insights underscore the urgent need for tailored water resource management, resilient infrastructure, and forward-looking policies to mitigate the impending hydro-meteorological challenges of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-46ab3ee08c854d6c9ad88981cface2fc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-46ab3ee08c854d6c9ad88981cface2fc2025-01-22T05:42:15ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102155Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basinSurendra Maharjan0Wenzhao Li1Shahryar Fazli2Arshad Ansari3Suraj Tiwari4Roma Thakurathi5Rejoice Thomas6Hesham El-Askary7Earth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USAEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USAEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USACosmos College of Management and Technology, NepalSchool of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USAInstitute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, NepalEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USAEarth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Schmid College of Science and Technology, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA; Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Moharem Bek, Alexandria 21522, Egypt; Corresponding author at: Earth Systems Science and Data Solutions Lab, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866, USA.Study region: Indrawati River Basin (IRB) in Nepal. Study focus: We employ the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, calibrated and validated with historical data, to assess the hydrological responses of the IRB to future climate scenarios. These scenarios are projected using an ensemble of five bias-corrected CMIP6 climate models under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 for three-time frames: Near Future (2025–2050), Mid Future (MF) (2051–2075), and Far Future (2076–2100). The bias correction was done using Robust Empirical Quantiles for precipitation and linear parametric transformation functions for temperature. New hydrological insights for the region: The study reveals significant shifts in the IRB's hydrological patterns, including an extended rainy season—most pronounced under SSP 5-8.5 in the MF scenario—and an increase in annual discharge, especially during the South Asian Monsoon. Notably, there is an amplified flood risk due to heightened extreme flow events. Additionally, the analysis indicates increasing risks of wildfires and landslides given the rise in pre-monsoon dry spells, which exacerbates the cascading devastation such as debris flow. These insights underscore the urgent need for tailored water resource management, resilient infrastructure, and forward-looking policies to mitigate the impending hydro-meteorological challenges of climate change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005044Hydrological modelingClimate changeCMIP6 bias correctionFloods, wildfire, and landslidesSouth Asian Monsoon |
| spellingShingle | Surendra Maharjan Wenzhao Li Shahryar Fazli Arshad Ansari Suraj Tiwari Roma Thakurathi Rejoice Thomas Hesham El-Askary Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Hydrological modeling Climate change CMIP6 bias correction Floods, wildfire, and landslides South Asian Monsoon |
| title | Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin |
| title_full | Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin |
| title_fullStr | Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin |
| title_short | Unfolding cascading impacts of changing South Asia monsoon on a Hindu Kush Himalayas basin |
| title_sort | unfolding cascading impacts of changing south asia monsoon on a hindu kush himalayas basin |
| topic | Hydrological modeling Climate change CMIP6 bias correction Floods, wildfire, and landslides South Asian Monsoon |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824005044 |
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