Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks
Understanding underlying transmission dynamics is necessary to effectively control an infectious disease outbreak. In the likely event that managers do not know where to target control resources because drivers of transmission are unknown, it may be desirable to tailor control strategies to a given...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
The Royal Society
2025-08-01
|
| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250598 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849230220874219520 |
|---|---|
| author | Samuel M. Smith Colleen T. Webb Stefan Sellman Tom Lindström Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson |
| author_facet | Samuel M. Smith Colleen T. Webb Stefan Sellman Tom Lindström Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson |
| author_sort | Samuel M. Smith |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding underlying transmission dynamics is necessary to effectively control an infectious disease outbreak. In the likely event that managers do not know where to target control resources because drivers of transmission are unknown, it may be desirable to tailor control strategies to a given outbreak by implementing control actions gradually in response to changes in the outbreak (adaptive) rather than all at once (fixed). Adaptive control strategies may also prevent over-reaction and thus causing unnecessary socioeconomic harm. However, it remains unclear whether the benefits of adaptive control strategies outweigh the potential of under-reacting and causing larger outbreaks. To weigh this trade-off, we used a validated national scale foot and mouth disease transmission model to compare how adaptive and fixed control strategies as well as various attributes of the control process affect outbreak size. We find that adaptive control strategies do not cost less for the vast majority of outbreaks, but infrequently result in much larger and more costly outbreaks owing to decision-making time and case reporting lags. This study emphasizes the cost of under-reacting to a disease outbreak and that minimizing decision-making time should be a key consideration when developing outbreak response guidelines. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-46680c08ef804ea58edfda36660bc84e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-46680c08ef804ea58edfda36660bc84e2025-08-21T08:08:50ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032025-08-0112810.1098/rsos.250598Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaksSamuel M. Smith0Colleen T. Webb1Stefan Sellman2Tom Lindström3Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson4Graduate Degree Program in Ecology and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USAGraduate Degree Program in Ecology and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USADepartment of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Linköping University, Linkoping, SwedenDepartment of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Linköping University, Linkoping, SwedenGraduate Degree Program in Ecology and Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USAUnderstanding underlying transmission dynamics is necessary to effectively control an infectious disease outbreak. In the likely event that managers do not know where to target control resources because drivers of transmission are unknown, it may be desirable to tailor control strategies to a given outbreak by implementing control actions gradually in response to changes in the outbreak (adaptive) rather than all at once (fixed). Adaptive control strategies may also prevent over-reaction and thus causing unnecessary socioeconomic harm. However, it remains unclear whether the benefits of adaptive control strategies outweigh the potential of under-reacting and causing larger outbreaks. To weigh this trade-off, we used a validated national scale foot and mouth disease transmission model to compare how adaptive and fixed control strategies as well as various attributes of the control process affect outbreak size. We find that adaptive control strategies do not cost less for the vast majority of outbreaks, but infrequently result in much larger and more costly outbreaks owing to decision-making time and case reporting lags. This study emphasizes the cost of under-reacting to a disease outbreak and that minimizing decision-making time should be a key consideration when developing outbreak response guidelines.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250598foot and mouth diseaseemergency disease managementadaptive controllivestock diseaseresponse delaydecision making |
| spellingShingle | Samuel M. Smith Colleen T. Webb Stefan Sellman Tom Lindström Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks Royal Society Open Science foot and mouth disease emergency disease management adaptive control livestock disease response delay decision making |
| title | Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| title_full | Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| title_fullStr | Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| title_short | Potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent, but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| title_sort | potential benefits of adaptive control strategies are outweighed by costs of infrequent but dramatically larger disease outbreaks |
| topic | foot and mouth disease emergency disease management adaptive control livestock disease response delay decision making |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.250598 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT samuelmsmith potentialbenefitsofadaptivecontrolstrategiesareoutweighedbycostsofinfrequentbutdramaticallylargerdiseaseoutbreaks AT colleentwebb potentialbenefitsofadaptivecontrolstrategiesareoutweighedbycostsofinfrequentbutdramaticallylargerdiseaseoutbreaks AT stefansellman potentialbenefitsofadaptivecontrolstrategiesareoutweighedbycostsofinfrequentbutdramaticallylargerdiseaseoutbreaks AT tomlindstrom potentialbenefitsofadaptivecontrolstrategiesareoutweighedbycostsofinfrequentbutdramaticallylargerdiseaseoutbreaks AT lindsaymbeckjohnson potentialbenefitsofadaptivecontrolstrategiesareoutweighedbycostsofinfrequentbutdramaticallylargerdiseaseoutbreaks |