Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk
Abstract In order to provide a reliable basis for the cost management of photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to accurately predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, a hierarchical quantitative prediction method of photovoltaic power generation depreciat...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Energy Informatics |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-024-00456-7 |
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| author | Yinming Liu Wengang Wang Xiangyue Meng Yuchen Zhang Zhuyu Chen |
| author_facet | Yinming Liu Wengang Wang Xiangyue Meng Yuchen Zhang Zhuyu Chen |
| author_sort | Yinming Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In order to provide a reliable basis for the cost management of photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to accurately predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, a hierarchical quantitative prediction method of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertain risks is proposed. Based on the conditional value-at-risk theory, a more comprehensive risk measure than VaR is provided, and the uncertainty risk value of photovoltaic power generation is calculated by considering the average loss exceeding this loss value. According to the calculated risk value, a double-layer photovoltaic power generation cost planning model is constructed, the upper and lower objective functions of the model are determined, and the constraint conditions are designed; Obtain a cost planning objective function solution base on a matrix task prioritization method, and generating a prioritization table; Prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on long-short memory neural network for each solution in the sorting table. In practical application, the test results show that this method can complete the risk quantitative analysis of uncertain factors, and the tracking ability and fitting degree of prediction are good; An ordered list of solutions of each objective function can be generated; The method in this paper is used to predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation in the first 10 solutions of priority ranking, and the maximum deviation of the prediction result is -0.65 million yuan. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-463db0c7dcb64f4c93b266a78dea161b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2520-8942 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Informatics |
| spelling | doaj-art-463db0c7dcb64f4c93b266a78dea161b2025-01-19T12:40:35ZengSpringerOpenEnergy Informatics2520-89422025-01-018112410.1186/s42162-024-00456-7Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty riskYinming Liu0Wengang Wang1Xiangyue Meng2Yuchen Zhang3Zhuyu Chen4State Grid Dingxi Power Supply CompanyState Grid Dingxi Power Supply CompanyState Grid Dingxi Power Supply CompanyState Grid Dingxi Power Supply CompanyState Grid Dingxi Power Supply CompanyAbstract In order to provide a reliable basis for the cost management of photovoltaic power generation, it is necessary to accurately predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, a hierarchical quantitative prediction method of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertain risks is proposed. Based on the conditional value-at-risk theory, a more comprehensive risk measure than VaR is provided, and the uncertainty risk value of photovoltaic power generation is calculated by considering the average loss exceeding this loss value. According to the calculated risk value, a double-layer photovoltaic power generation cost planning model is constructed, the upper and lower objective functions of the model are determined, and the constraint conditions are designed; Obtain a cost planning objective function solution base on a matrix task prioritization method, and generating a prioritization table; Prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on long-short memory neural network for each solution in the sorting table. In practical application, the test results show that this method can complete the risk quantitative analysis of uncertain factors, and the tracking ability and fitting degree of prediction are good; An ordered list of solutions of each objective function can be generated; The method in this paper is used to predict the depreciation expense of photovoltaic power generation in the first 10 solutions of priority ranking, and the maximum deviation of the prediction result is -0.65 million yuan.https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-024-00456-7Uncertainty riskPrioritizing matrix tasksPhotovoltaic power generationDepreciation expenseHierarchical quantitative prediction |
| spellingShingle | Yinming Liu Wengang Wang Xiangyue Meng Yuchen Zhang Zhuyu Chen Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk Energy Informatics Uncertainty risk Prioritizing matrix tasks Photovoltaic power generation Depreciation expense Hierarchical quantitative prediction |
| title | Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| title_full | Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| title_fullStr | Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| title_short | Hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| title_sort | hierarchical quantitative prediction of photovoltaic power generation depreciation expense based on matrix task prioritization considering uncertainty risk |
| topic | Uncertainty risk Prioritizing matrix tasks Photovoltaic power generation Depreciation expense Hierarchical quantitative prediction |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s42162-024-00456-7 |
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