Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations

Abstract Willig et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 868–885, 2024) cautioned that unequal sampling effort and pseudoreplication can bias the characterisation of species phenology using circular statistics. Borrowing concepts from rarefaction, they proposed bootstrapping to control for time...

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Main Author: Hao Ran Lai
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-07-01
Series:Methods in Ecology and Evolution
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.70079
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author Hao Ran Lai
author_facet Hao Ran Lai
author_sort Hao Ran Lai
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Willig et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 868–885, 2024) cautioned that unequal sampling effort and pseudoreplication can bias the characterisation of species phenology using circular statistics. Borrowing concepts from rarefaction, they proposed bootstrapping to control for time‐varying marginal totals that arise from unequal sampling effort over time. This study extends their cautionary notes to regressions of phenological time series, where bootstrapping can be replaced by various built‐in functionalities of generalised linear mixed‐effect models. I further take this opportunity to borrow a key innovation in model‐based ordination and joint species distribution modelling—generalised linear latent variable models (GLLVM)—to illustrate its ability to extract more information out of multispecies phenological data beyond circular statistics. Synthesis. With sampling‐bias adjustment, GLLVMs, or regressions in general, are robust predictive and inferential tools that enrich our phenological understandings in conjunction with circular statistics for hypothesis testing.
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spelling doaj-art-45b39e89031d4f51a4234ad499e90ced2025-08-20T03:28:41ZengWileyMethods in Ecology and Evolution2041-210X2025-07-011671542154610.1111/2041-210X.70079Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associationsHao Ran Lai0School of Biological Sciences University of Canterbury Christchurch New ZealandAbstract Willig et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 868–885, 2024) cautioned that unequal sampling effort and pseudoreplication can bias the characterisation of species phenology using circular statistics. Borrowing concepts from rarefaction, they proposed bootstrapping to control for time‐varying marginal totals that arise from unequal sampling effort over time. This study extends their cautionary notes to regressions of phenological time series, where bootstrapping can be replaced by various built‐in functionalities of generalised linear mixed‐effect models. I further take this opportunity to borrow a key innovation in model‐based ordination and joint species distribution modelling—generalised linear latent variable models (GLLVM)—to illustrate its ability to extract more information out of multispecies phenological data beyond circular statistics. Synthesis. With sampling‐bias adjustment, GLLVMs, or regressions in general, are robust predictive and inferential tools that enrich our phenological understandings in conjunction with circular statistics for hypothesis testing.https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.70079circular statisticscosinor rhythmometrygeneralised linear latent variable modelphenologyregressionsampling bias
spellingShingle Hao Ran Lai
Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
Methods in Ecology and Evolution
circular statistics
cosinor rhythmometry
generalised linear latent variable model
phenology
regression
sampling bias
title Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
title_full Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
title_fullStr Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
title_full_unstemmed Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
title_short Model‐based ordination for phenological studies: From controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
title_sort model based ordination for phenological studies from controlling sampling bias to inferring temporal associations
topic circular statistics
cosinor rhythmometry
generalised linear latent variable model
phenology
regression
sampling bias
url https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.70079
work_keys_str_mv AT haoranlai modelbasedordinationforphenologicalstudiesfromcontrollingsamplingbiastoinferringtemporalassociations