Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat
Abstract Predicting the migration of marine life due to climate change is important not only ecologically but also for the management of valuable living marine resources. Anticipating how the habitable area of species will change on decision-relevant time scales, however, remains a challenge. Here w...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02600-x |
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| _version_ | 1849761112716738560 |
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| author | Hwa-Jin Choi Jong-Yeon Park Charles A. Stock Hyung-Gyu Lim |
| author_facet | Hwa-Jin Choi Jong-Yeon Park Charles A. Stock Hyung-Gyu Lim |
| author_sort | Hwa-Jin Choi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predicting the migration of marine life due to climate change is important not only ecologically but also for the management of valuable living marine resources. Anticipating how the habitable area of species will change on decision-relevant time scales, however, remains a challenge. Here we assess the predictability of a normalized metabolic index that expresses habitat-relevant anomalies in metabolic constraints using a coupled physical-biogeochemical prediction system based on an Earth system model. The normalized metabolic index was generally more predictable than temperature, especially in the subsurface tropics where persistent lateral oxygen advection anomalies at the boundary of oxygen minimum zones extended the predictability horizons. Further investigations suggest that interannual catch variations of bigeye tuna in the tropical exclusive economic zones can be anticipated from the predicted metabolic constraints a year in advance, supporting the potential utility of Earth system model-based physiological prediction for the proactive climate-informed management of living marine resources. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-45b1b662f5564da4ac68d2ab2d331dbf |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-45b1b662f5564da4ac68d2ab2d331dbf2025-08-20T03:06:08ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-08-01611810.1038/s43247-025-02600-xExtended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitatHwa-Jin Choi0Jong-Yeon Park1Charles A. Stock2Hyung-Gyu Lim3International Max Planck Research School on Earth System ModellingDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences & Earth Environmental System Research Center, Jeonbuk National UniversityNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryKorea Institute of Ocean Science and TechnologyAbstract Predicting the migration of marine life due to climate change is important not only ecologically but also for the management of valuable living marine resources. Anticipating how the habitable area of species will change on decision-relevant time scales, however, remains a challenge. Here we assess the predictability of a normalized metabolic index that expresses habitat-relevant anomalies in metabolic constraints using a coupled physical-biogeochemical prediction system based on an Earth system model. The normalized metabolic index was generally more predictable than temperature, especially in the subsurface tropics where persistent lateral oxygen advection anomalies at the boundary of oxygen minimum zones extended the predictability horizons. Further investigations suggest that interannual catch variations of bigeye tuna in the tropical exclusive economic zones can be anticipated from the predicted metabolic constraints a year in advance, supporting the potential utility of Earth system model-based physiological prediction for the proactive climate-informed management of living marine resources.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02600-x |
| spellingShingle | Hwa-Jin Choi Jong-Yeon Park Charles A. Stock Hyung-Gyu Lim Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| title_full | Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| title_fullStr | Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| title_short | Extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| title_sort | extended predictability of metabolic constraints on fish habitat |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02600-x |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hwajinchoi extendedpredictabilityofmetabolicconstraintsonfishhabitat AT jongyeonpark extendedpredictabilityofmetabolicconstraintsonfishhabitat AT charlesastock extendedpredictabilityofmetabolicconstraintsonfishhabitat AT hyunggyulim extendedpredictabilityofmetabolicconstraintsonfishhabitat |