The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines

Critical voices on unfairly high mpox and other vaccine prices open the debate on the ‘right price’ to be paid to private vaccine suppliers. We apply compound real options analysis as a more appropriate valuation method to derive a correct firm’s break-even price. Real option models are better able...

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Main Authors: Peter-Jan Engelen, Danny Cassimon
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2025-05-01
Series:BMJ Global Health
Online Access:https://gh.bmj.com/content/10/5/e018390.full
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author Peter-Jan Engelen
Danny Cassimon
author_facet Peter-Jan Engelen
Danny Cassimon
author_sort Peter-Jan Engelen
collection DOAJ
description Critical voices on unfairly high mpox and other vaccine prices open the debate on the ‘right price’ to be paid to private vaccine suppliers. We apply compound real options analysis as a more appropriate valuation method to derive a correct firm’s break-even price. Real option models are better able to capture the development costs, associated risks and the embedded operational flexibility in vaccine development in a superior way compared with more traditional net present value (NPV) methods. The real option price is lower than standard NPV-based methods, thereby providing a basis to improve the bargaining position of payers in negotiating better vaccine price outcomes. Deeper insights into the correct break-even price will create a more balanced playing field between firms and payers. This can also lead to more equitable access to vaccines in developing countries.
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spelling doaj-art-4598545ac2874e33bf280ffc5db8b2a02025-08-20T03:12:36ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082025-05-0110510.1136/bmjgh-2024-018390The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccinesPeter-Jan Engelen0Danny Cassimon1Utrecht School of Economics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, NetherlandsIOB, University of Antwerp, Antwerpen, BelgiumCritical voices on unfairly high mpox and other vaccine prices open the debate on the ‘right price’ to be paid to private vaccine suppliers. We apply compound real options analysis as a more appropriate valuation method to derive a correct firm’s break-even price. Real option models are better able to capture the development costs, associated risks and the embedded operational flexibility in vaccine development in a superior way compared with more traditional net present value (NPV) methods. The real option price is lower than standard NPV-based methods, thereby providing a basis to improve the bargaining position of payers in negotiating better vaccine price outcomes. Deeper insights into the correct break-even price will create a more balanced playing field between firms and payers. This can also lead to more equitable access to vaccines in developing countries.https://gh.bmj.com/content/10/5/e018390.full
spellingShingle Peter-Jan Engelen
Danny Cassimon
The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
BMJ Global Health
title The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
title_full The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
title_fullStr The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
title_full_unstemmed The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
title_short The role of the right valuation method in setting the firm’s break-even price for mpox (and other) vaccines
title_sort role of the right valuation method in setting the firm s break even price for mpox and other vaccines
url https://gh.bmj.com/content/10/5/e018390.full
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