Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential

Over recent decades, Brazil has amassed a wealth of knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate change on its biodiversity. Studies have predicted mostly negative impacts and some positive ones, and it is time to synthesize this information. We did a systematic review of the literature and...

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Main Authors: Artur Malecha, Stella Manes, Mariana M. Vale
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530064425000136
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author Artur Malecha
Stella Manes
Mariana M. Vale
author_facet Artur Malecha
Stella Manes
Mariana M. Vale
author_sort Artur Malecha
collection DOAJ
description Over recent decades, Brazil has amassed a wealth of knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate change on its biodiversity. Studies have predicted mostly negative impacts and some positive ones, and it is time to synthesize this information. We did a systematic review of the literature and quantitative analysis, gathering 20,582 risk projections from 131 papers. We then estimated the effect size of the projected risks. We found that climate change impacts on biodiversity vary spatially. The Pantanal wetlands are predicted to experience the most significant negative impacts, followed by the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, while the Pampa grasslands are expected to see lower impacts. Our analysis also reveals biases and knowledge gaps. For example, the shortage of studies on marine environments precluded their inclusion in the analysis, and there was a strong bias towards the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, with a shortage of studies on the Pantanal and the Pampa. Moreover, there was a taxonomic bias towards plants and terrestrial vertebrates, which comprised >90% of the data. Finally, while adherence to the Paris Agreement is unlikely to eliminate climate change impacts on biodiversity, our analysis predicts that it could reduce these impacts by 20% and halve the number of species at risk of extinction from climate change in Brazil.
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spelling doaj-art-458e76a2caed409099f50202d88000142025-08-20T03:10:13ZengElsevierPerspectives in Ecology and Conservation2530-06442025-04-01232778410.1016/j.pecon.2025.03.004Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potentialArtur Malecha0Stella Manes1Mariana M. Vale2Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Av. Carlos Chagas Filho, 373, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Bloco A, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21941-590, Brazil; Corresponding author.Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Av. Carlos Chagas Filho, 373, Centro de Ciências da Saúde, Bloco A, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21941-590, Brazil; International Institute for Sustainability (IIS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilEcology Department, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BrazilOver recent decades, Brazil has amassed a wealth of knowledge regarding the potential effects of climate change on its biodiversity. Studies have predicted mostly negative impacts and some positive ones, and it is time to synthesize this information. We did a systematic review of the literature and quantitative analysis, gathering 20,582 risk projections from 131 papers. We then estimated the effect size of the projected risks. We found that climate change impacts on biodiversity vary spatially. The Pantanal wetlands are predicted to experience the most significant negative impacts, followed by the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, while the Pampa grasslands are expected to see lower impacts. Our analysis also reveals biases and knowledge gaps. For example, the shortage of studies on marine environments precluded their inclusion in the analysis, and there was a strong bias towards the Amazon and the Atlantic Forest, with a shortage of studies on the Pantanal and the Pampa. Moreover, there was a taxonomic bias towards plants and terrestrial vertebrates, which comprised >90% of the data. Finally, while adherence to the Paris Agreement is unlikely to eliminate climate change impacts on biodiversity, our analysis predicts that it could reduce these impacts by 20% and halve the number of species at risk of extinction from climate change in Brazil.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530064425000136Extinction riskRisk projectionsConservationImpactsSystematic review
spellingShingle Artur Malecha
Stella Manes
Mariana M. Vale
Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation
Extinction risk
Risk projections
Conservation
Impacts
Systematic review
title Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
title_full Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
title_fullStr Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
title_full_unstemmed Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
title_short Climate change and biodiversity in Brazil: What we know, what we don’t, and Paris Agreement’s risk reduction potential
title_sort climate change and biodiversity in brazil what we know what we don t and paris agreement s risk reduction potential
topic Extinction risk
Risk projections
Conservation
Impacts
Systematic review
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2530064425000136
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AT stellamanes climatechangeandbiodiversityinbrazilwhatweknowwhatwedontandparisagreementsriskreductionpotential
AT marianamvale climatechangeandbiodiversityinbrazilwhatweknowwhatwedontandparisagreementsriskreductionpotential