Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming
Abstract Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-ba...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01930-6 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850118474334994432 |
|---|---|
| author | Yuanchao Fan Kaighin A. McColl |
| author_facet | Yuanchao Fan Kaighin A. McColl |
| author_sort | Yuanchao Fan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-based human energy balance model, which considers radiative, wind, and key physiological effects, to project global risk of uncompensable heat stress outdoors using bias-corrected climate model outputs. Focusing on farmers (approximately 850 million people), our model shows that an ensemble median 2.8% (15%) would be subject to several days of uncompensable heat stress yearly at 2 (4) °C of warming relative to preindustrial. Focusing on people who must walk outside to access drinking water (approximately 700 million people), 3.4% (23%) would be impacted at 2 (4) °C of warming. Outdoor work would need to be completed at night or in the early morning during these events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4527962a379d407dabfd3dfe6cbb56fd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-4527962a379d407dabfd3dfe6cbb56fd2025-08-20T02:35:51ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-12-015111310.1038/s43247-024-01930-6Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warmingYuanchao Fan0Kaighin A. McColl1Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Ecological Remediation and Carbon Sequestration, Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard UniversityAbstract Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-based human energy balance model, which considers radiative, wind, and key physiological effects, to project global risk of uncompensable heat stress outdoors using bias-corrected climate model outputs. Focusing on farmers (approximately 850 million people), our model shows that an ensemble median 2.8% (15%) would be subject to several days of uncompensable heat stress yearly at 2 (4) °C of warming relative to preindustrial. Focusing on people who must walk outside to access drinking water (approximately 700 million people), 3.4% (23%) would be impacted at 2 (4) °C of warming. Outdoor work would need to be completed at night or in the early morning during these events.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01930-6 |
| spellingShingle | Yuanchao Fan Kaighin A. McColl Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| title_full | Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| title_fullStr | Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| title_short | Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| title_sort | widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01930-6 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuanchaofan widespreadoutdoorexposuretouncompensableheatstresswithwarming AT kaighinamccoll widespreadoutdoorexposuretouncompensableheatstresswithwarming |