Widespread outdoor exposure to uncompensable heat stress with warming
Abstract Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-ba...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
|
| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01930-6 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Abstract Previous studies projected an increasing risk of uncompensable heat stress indoors in a warming climate. However, little is known about the timing and extent of this risk for those engaged in essential outdoor activities, such as water collection and farming. Here, we employ a physically-based human energy balance model, which considers radiative, wind, and key physiological effects, to project global risk of uncompensable heat stress outdoors using bias-corrected climate model outputs. Focusing on farmers (approximately 850 million people), our model shows that an ensemble median 2.8% (15%) would be subject to several days of uncompensable heat stress yearly at 2 (4) °C of warming relative to preindustrial. Focusing on people who must walk outside to access drinking water (approximately 700 million people), 3.4% (23%) would be impacted at 2 (4) °C of warming. Outdoor work would need to be completed at night or in the early morning during these events. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 2662-4435 |