Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitiv...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419 |
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| author | Char Leung Li Su |
| author_facet | Char Leung Li Su |
| author_sort | Char Leung |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-44f1b1ad6eca41b0aeb37216dbdbcf3a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-44f1b1ad6eca41b0aeb37216dbdbcf3a2025-08-20T02:09:05ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-07-0115610791810.1016/j.ijid.2025.107918Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series studyChar Leung0Li Su1Leicester Medical School, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Address correspondence to: Char Leung, George Davies Centre, University of Leicester, 15 Lancaster Road, Leicester, LE1 7HA, UKMRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKThis study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419Common coldEnglandImmunity gapImmunity debt |
| spellingShingle | Char Leung Li Su Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study International Journal of Infectious Diseases Common cold England Immunity gap Immunity debt |
| title | Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study |
| title_full | Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study |
| title_fullStr | Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study |
| title_short | Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study |
| title_sort | postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in england an interrupted time series study |
| topic | Common cold England Immunity gap Immunity debt |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT charleung postpandemicimmunitydebtofcommoncoldinenglandaninterruptedtimeseriesstudy AT lisu postpandemicimmunitydebtofcommoncoldinenglandaninterruptedtimeseriesstudy |