Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study

This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitiv...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Char Leung, Li Su
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850213710594834432
author Char Leung
Li Su
author_facet Char Leung
Li Su
author_sort Char Leung
collection DOAJ
description This study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.
format Article
id doaj-art-44f1b1ad6eca41b0aeb37216dbdbcf3a
institution OA Journals
issn 1201-9712
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series International Journal of Infectious Diseases
spelling doaj-art-44f1b1ad6eca41b0aeb37216dbdbcf3a2025-08-20T02:09:05ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-07-0115610791810.1016/j.ijid.2025.107918Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series studyChar Leung0Li Su1Leicester Medical School, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Address correspondence to: Char Leung, George Davies Centre, University of Leicester, 15 Lancaster Road, Leicester, LE1 7HA, UKMRC Biostatistics Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKThis study investigates immunity debt in five common cold viruses (adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and respiratory syncytial virus) in England using weekly positivity rate data from UKHSA. An interrupted time series analysis assessed post-NPI effects with sensitivity analyses conducted to account for potential structural changes in viral dynamics across years. Results indicate significant immunity debt for adenovirus, parainfluenza virus, and respiratory syncytial virus. These findings highlight the need for public health preparedness post-NPI removal, particularly for vulnerable groups, and emphasize challenges in predicting immunity debt for viruses with high serotype diversity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419Common coldEnglandImmunity gapImmunity debt
spellingShingle Char Leung
Li Su
Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Common cold
England
Immunity gap
Immunity debt
title Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
title_full Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
title_fullStr Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
title_full_unstemmed Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
title_short Postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in England: an interrupted time series study
title_sort postpandemic immunity debt of common cold in england an interrupted time series study
topic Common cold
England
Immunity gap
Immunity debt
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971225001419
work_keys_str_mv AT charleung postpandemicimmunitydebtofcommoncoldinenglandaninterruptedtimeseriesstudy
AT lisu postpandemicimmunitydebtofcommoncoldinenglandaninterruptedtimeseriesstudy