La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad
The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its object...
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Universidad de Costa Rica
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Población y Salud en Mesoamérica |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/41693 |
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| author | Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni |
| author_facet | Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni |
| author_sort | Lucía Andreozzi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its objectives is to obtain probabilistic fertility forecasts for Rosario City. For this, based on vital statistics, estimates and population projections, probable scenarios, past and future, are constructed, both for the global fertility rate and the specific fertility rates. The results of this study, based on the application of probabilistic prognostic models, allow to know structures and trends, past and future, of fertility, so that diagnoses can be generated that are useful for the evaluation and management of the health system or good for the development of new public policies. The results indicate that Rosario had, has and will continue to have a change in fertility patterns faster and more marked than the national average. Although this fact is to be expected in a context marked by advances in public health (which allow access to more and better reproductive health care), the methodology used here is based solely on the extrapolation of trends, therefore, the backprojection must be carefully analyzed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1659-0201 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Población y Salud en Mesoamérica |
| spelling | doaj-art-444508fbf43c4ad99f5d4f03d8af7f4d2025-08-20T02:05:51ZengUniversidad de Costa RicaPoblación y Salud en Mesoamérica1659-02012021-01-0118210.15517/psm.v18i2.41693La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidadLucía Andreozzi0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1723-5725Nora Ventroni1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9510-9436Universidad Nacional de Rosario (UNR). Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), ROSARIO, ARGENTINA.Universidad Nacional de Rosario (UNR). Municipalidad de Rosario, ROSARIO, ARGENTINAThe study that gives rise to this article arises from the results obtained in the framework of a collaboration agreement signed by the Statistical Office of Rosario City and the School of Statistics of the Faculty of Economic Sciences and Statistics (National University of Rosario). Among its objectives is to obtain probabilistic fertility forecasts for Rosario City. For this, based on vital statistics, estimates and population projections, probable scenarios, past and future, are constructed, both for the global fertility rate and the specific fertility rates. The results of this study, based on the application of probabilistic prognostic models, allow to know structures and trends, past and future, of fertility, so that diagnoses can be generated that are useful for the evaluation and management of the health system or good for the development of new public policies. The results indicate that Rosario had, has and will continue to have a change in fertility patterns faster and more marked than the national average. Although this fact is to be expected in a context marked by advances in public health (which allow access to more and better reproductive health care), the methodology used here is based solely on the extrapolation of trends, therefore, the backprojection must be carefully analyzed.https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/41693global fertility ratespecific fertility ratesfunctional data modelprobabilistic forecast models |
| spellingShingle | Lucía Andreozzi Nora Ventroni La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad Población y Salud en Mesoamérica global fertility rate specific fertility rates functional data model probabilistic forecast models |
| title | La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad |
| title_full | La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad |
| title_fullStr | La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad |
| title_full_unstemmed | La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad |
| title_short | La fecundidad en la ciudad de Rosario, Argentina: proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas específicas de fecundidad |
| title_sort | la fecundidad en la ciudad de rosario argentina proyecciones y retroproyecciones de la tasa global de fecundidad y las tasas especificas de fecundidad |
| topic | global fertility rate specific fertility rates functional data model probabilistic forecast models |
| url | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/41693 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT luciaandreozzi lafecundidadenlaciudadderosarioargentinaproyeccionesyretroproyeccionesdelatasaglobaldefecundidadylastasasespecificasdefecundidad AT noraventroni lafecundidadenlaciudadderosarioargentinaproyeccionesyretroproyeccionesdelatasaglobaldefecundidadylastasasespecificasdefecundidad |