Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.

National and sub-national population-based surveys, when performed at intervals, may assess important changes in TB prevalence. In 2022 we re-surveyed nine Nairobi County neighbourhoods that were previously surveyed in 2015. We aimed to determine pulmonary TB prevalence, compare prevalence to 2015 e...

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Main Authors: Jane R Ong'ang'o, Jennifer Ross, Richard Kiplimo, Cheryl Kerama, Khai Hoan Tram, Jerry S Zifodya, Nellie Mukiri, Erick Nyadimo, Martha Njoroge, Aiban Ronoh, Immaculate Kathure, Dickson Kirathe, Thomas R Hawn, Videlis Nduba, David J Horne
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2025-01-01
Series:PLOS Global Public Health
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0003849
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author Jane R Ong'ang'o
Jennifer Ross
Richard Kiplimo
Cheryl Kerama
Khai Hoan Tram
Jerry S Zifodya
Nellie Mukiri
Erick Nyadimo
Martha Njoroge
Aiban Ronoh
Immaculate Kathure
Dickson Kirathe
Thomas R Hawn
Videlis Nduba
David J Horne
author_facet Jane R Ong'ang'o
Jennifer Ross
Richard Kiplimo
Cheryl Kerama
Khai Hoan Tram
Jerry S Zifodya
Nellie Mukiri
Erick Nyadimo
Martha Njoroge
Aiban Ronoh
Immaculate Kathure
Dickson Kirathe
Thomas R Hawn
Videlis Nduba
David J Horne
author_sort Jane R Ong'ang'o
collection DOAJ
description National and sub-national population-based surveys, when performed at intervals, may assess important changes in TB prevalence. In 2022 we re-surveyed nine Nairobi County neighbourhoods that were previously surveyed in 2015. We aimed to determine pulmonary TB prevalence, compare prevalence to 2015 estimates, and evaluate changes in risk groups. Participants who reported cough of any duration and/or whose chest x-ray suggested TB submitted sputum for smear microscopy, Xpert Ultra, and liquid culture. We defined prevalent TB as Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection by sputum Xpert or culture, excepting individuals who were only trace positive. Our methods differed from 2015, which used solid media, Xpert MTB/RIF, and cough duration >2 weeks. We calculated TB prevalence using random-effects logistic regression models with missing value imputations and inverse probability weighting. In 2022 among 6369 participants, 1582 submitted ≥1 sputum sample, among whom 42 (2.7%) had TB, a weighted TB prevalence of 806/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 518-1096). An additional 31 (2.0%) participants tested Ultra trace-positive/culture-negative. For comparison to 2015, we excluded 2022 participants (n = 2) whose only criterion for sputum was cough <2 weeks. There was no evidence for a decline in overall TB prevalence from 2015 to 2022. TB prevalence among men was high (1301/100,000) and remained high compared to 2015 (p-value <0.05). The age group with the highest estimated prevalence remained people ages 45-54 years. Among people with prevalent TB who reported cough, 76% had not sought health care. Dissimilar from other serial surveys that showed declines in TB prevalence, we found persistently high TB prevalence over a 7-year period in Nairobi County. Limitations of this study include changes in methodology between the two surveys and complex effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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spelling doaj-art-43feaba4f2d44ffa8b97fea59e7d6f292025-08-20T03:02:01ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLOS Global Public Health2767-33752025-01-0152e000384910.1371/journal.pgph.0003849Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.Jane R Ong'ang'oJennifer RossRichard KiplimoCheryl KeramaKhai Hoan TramJerry S ZifodyaNellie MukiriErick NyadimoMartha NjorogeAiban RonohImmaculate KathureDickson KiratheThomas R HawnVidelis NdubaDavid J HorneNational and sub-national population-based surveys, when performed at intervals, may assess important changes in TB prevalence. In 2022 we re-surveyed nine Nairobi County neighbourhoods that were previously surveyed in 2015. We aimed to determine pulmonary TB prevalence, compare prevalence to 2015 estimates, and evaluate changes in risk groups. Participants who reported cough of any duration and/or whose chest x-ray suggested TB submitted sputum for smear microscopy, Xpert Ultra, and liquid culture. We defined prevalent TB as Mycobacterium tuberculosis detection by sputum Xpert or culture, excepting individuals who were only trace positive. Our methods differed from 2015, which used solid media, Xpert MTB/RIF, and cough duration >2 weeks. We calculated TB prevalence using random-effects logistic regression models with missing value imputations and inverse probability weighting. In 2022 among 6369 participants, 1582 submitted ≥1 sputum sample, among whom 42 (2.7%) had TB, a weighted TB prevalence of 806/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 518-1096). An additional 31 (2.0%) participants tested Ultra trace-positive/culture-negative. For comparison to 2015, we excluded 2022 participants (n = 2) whose only criterion for sputum was cough <2 weeks. There was no evidence for a decline in overall TB prevalence from 2015 to 2022. TB prevalence among men was high (1301/100,000) and remained high compared to 2015 (p-value <0.05). The age group with the highest estimated prevalence remained people ages 45-54 years. Among people with prevalent TB who reported cough, 76% had not sought health care. Dissimilar from other serial surveys that showed declines in TB prevalence, we found persistently high TB prevalence over a 7-year period in Nairobi County. Limitations of this study include changes in methodology between the two surveys and complex effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0003849
spellingShingle Jane R Ong'ang'o
Jennifer Ross
Richard Kiplimo
Cheryl Kerama
Khai Hoan Tram
Jerry S Zifodya
Nellie Mukiri
Erick Nyadimo
Martha Njoroge
Aiban Ronoh
Immaculate Kathure
Dickson Kirathe
Thomas R Hawn
Videlis Nduba
David J Horne
Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
PLOS Global Public Health
title Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
title_full Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
title_fullStr Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
title_full_unstemmed Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
title_short Persistently high TB prevalence in Nairobi County neighbourhoods, 2015-2022.
title_sort persistently high tb prevalence in nairobi county neighbourhoods 2015 2022
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0003849
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