APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA
This study aims to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict national economic growth, specifically focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GDP data were collected from 2012 to 2023, categorized into training data for the period 2012-2022 and testing data for...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitas Pattimura
2024-05-01
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| Series: | Barekeng |
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| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12208 |
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| author | Elisabeth Brielin Sinu Maria A Kleden Astri Atti |
| author_facet | Elisabeth Brielin Sinu Maria A Kleden Astri Atti |
| author_sort | Elisabeth Brielin Sinu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict national economic growth, specifically focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GDP data were collected from 2012 to 2023, categorized into training data for the period 2012-2022 and testing data for the year 2023. Utilizing the training data, the research findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,1) model emerges as the most effective in forecasting Indonesia's GDP on a quarterly basis, considering current prices. Subsequently, the model was tested on the 2023 dataset, and it demonstrated accurate predictions aligned with patterns and trends identified during the training phase. The outcomes of this research contribute significantly to the field of economic forecasting in Indonesia, particularly in understanding and predicting the quarterly developments of GDP. The proposed ARIMA model can serve as an effective tool for decision-makers and economic analysts to strategically plan for future economic dynamics on a quarterly basis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-42fb546e06e24fffbfd8a0892e887b77 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-05-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-42fb546e06e24fffbfd8a0892e887b772025-08-20T04:00:48ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172024-05-011821261127210.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp1261-127212208APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATAElisabeth Brielin Sinu0Maria A Kleden1Astri Atti2Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana, IndonesiaThis study aims to apply the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict national economic growth, specifically focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. GDP data were collected from 2012 to 2023, categorized into training data for the period 2012-2022 and testing data for the year 2023. Utilizing the training data, the research findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,0) (0,0,1) model emerges as the most effective in forecasting Indonesia's GDP on a quarterly basis, considering current prices. Subsequently, the model was tested on the 2023 dataset, and it demonstrated accurate predictions aligned with patterns and trends identified during the training phase. The outcomes of this research contribute significantly to the field of economic forecasting in Indonesia, particularly in understanding and predicting the quarterly developments of GDP. The proposed ARIMA model can serve as an effective tool for decision-makers and economic analysts to strategically plan for future economic dynamics on a quarterly basis.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12208arimaforecastinggdptime series |
| spellingShingle | Elisabeth Brielin Sinu Maria A Kleden Astri Atti APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA Barekeng arima forecasting gdp time series |
| title | APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA |
| title_full | APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA |
| title_fullStr | APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA |
| title_full_unstemmed | APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA |
| title_short | APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL FOR FORECASTING NATIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH: A FOCUS ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DATA |
| title_sort | application of arima model for forecasting national economic growth a focus on gross domestic product data |
| topic | arima forecasting gdp time series |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12208 |
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