Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt
Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | The Scientific World Journal |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/405924 |
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| _version_ | 1849407849220800512 |
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| author | Jian Deng Youzhen Xiang Wenhui Hao Yongzhong Feng Gaihe Yang Guangxin Ren Xinhui Han |
| author_facet | Jian Deng Youzhen Xiang Wenhui Hao Yongzhong Feng Gaihe Yang Guangxin Ren Xinhui Han |
| author_sort | Jian Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-42de97f4251d44d781399bbbbbb113ce |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2356-6140 1537-744X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Scientific World Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-42de97f4251d44d781399bbbbbb113ce2025-08-20T03:35:56ZengWileyThe Scientific World Journal2356-61401537-744X2014-01-01201410.1155/2014/405924405924Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of EgyptJian Deng0Youzhen Xiang1Wenhui Hao2Yongzhong Feng3Gaihe Yang4Guangxin Ren5Xinhui Han6College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, ChinaFood security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/405924 |
| spellingShingle | Jian Deng Youzhen Xiang Wenhui Hao Yongzhong Feng Gaihe Yang Guangxin Ren Xinhui Han Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt The Scientific World Journal |
| title | Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt |
| title_full | Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt |
| title_fullStr | Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt |
| title_short | Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt |
| title_sort | research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of egypt |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/405924 |
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