Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy
For the energy economics sector, earlier forecasting approaches (e.g., a Kaya identity or a double-logarithmic function) proved too simplistic. It is becoming necessary to systemically include the emergence of new discrete evolutionary changes. This paper provides a novel quantitative forecasting m...
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National Research University Higher School of Economics
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Foresight and STI Governance |
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| Online Access: | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19163 |
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| author | Gilbert Ahamer |
| author_facet | Gilbert Ahamer |
| author_sort | Gilbert Ahamer |
| collection | DOAJ |
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For the energy economics sector, earlier forecasting approaches (e.g., a Kaya identity or a double-logarithmic function) proved too simplistic. It is becoming necessary to systemically include the emergence of new discrete evolutionary changes. This paper provides a novel quantitative forecasting method which relies on the Global Change Data Base (GCDB). It allows for the generation and testing of hypotheses on future scenarios for energy, economy, and land use on a global and country level. The GCDB method envisages systemic variables, especially quotients (such as energy intensity), shares (such as GDP shares, energy mix), and growth rates including their change rates. Thus, the non-linear features of evolutionary developments become quantitatively visible and can be corroborated by plots of large bundles of time-series data. For the energy industry, the forecasting of sectoral GDP, fuel shares, energy intensities, and their respective dynamic development can be undertaken using the GCDB method.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-42d8a3d11efd475491f57d2b71aa47f3 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2500-2597 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | National Research University Higher School of Economics |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foresight and STI Governance |
| spelling | doaj-art-42d8a3d11efd475491f57d2b71aa47f32025-08-20T02:26:06ZengNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsForesight and STI Governance2500-25972022-09-0116310.17323/2500-2597.2022.3.17.34Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and EconomyGilbert Ahamer0Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria; Institute for Economic History at the Graz University, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria For the energy economics sector, earlier forecasting approaches (e.g., a Kaya identity or a double-logarithmic function) proved too simplistic. It is becoming necessary to systemically include the emergence of new discrete evolutionary changes. This paper provides a novel quantitative forecasting method which relies on the Global Change Data Base (GCDB). It allows for the generation and testing of hypotheses on future scenarios for energy, economy, and land use on a global and country level. The GCDB method envisages systemic variables, especially quotients (such as energy intensity), shares (such as GDP shares, energy mix), and growth rates including their change rates. Thus, the non-linear features of evolutionary developments become quantitatively visible and can be corroborated by plots of large bundles of time-series data. For the energy industry, the forecasting of sectoral GDP, fuel shares, energy intensities, and their respective dynamic development can be undertaken using the GCDB method. https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19163scenariosenergy foresightglobal modellingGlobal Change Data Basetrends extrapolationland use change |
| spellingShingle | Gilbert Ahamer Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy Foresight and STI Governance scenarios energy foresight global modelling Global Change Data Base trends extrapolation land use change |
| title | Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy |
| title_full | Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy |
| title_short | Scenarios of Systemic Transitions in Energy and Economy |
| title_sort | scenarios of systemic transitions in energy and economy |
| topic | scenarios energy foresight global modelling Global Change Data Base trends extrapolation land use change |
| url | https://foresight-journal.hse.ru/article/view/19163 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT gilbertahamer scenariosofsystemictransitionsinenergyandeconomy |