Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport
Abstract Cold surges can significantly affect maritime transportation safety, owing to the strong wind, significant temperature drop, as well as dense fog. Therefore, it is crucial to make an accurate prediction of meteorological phenomenon in the maritime regions during cold surges. The present stu...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Meteorological Applications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70029 |
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| author | Chen Chen Haoyu Chen Kenji Sasa |
| author_facet | Chen Chen Haoyu Chen Kenji Sasa |
| author_sort | Chen Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Cold surges can significantly affect maritime transportation safety, owing to the strong wind, significant temperature drop, as well as dense fog. Therefore, it is crucial to make an accurate prediction of meteorological phenomenon in the maritime regions during cold surges. The present study evaluates the performance of planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface schemes in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, specifically for the wind (wind speed and direction) and fog (temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity), during two cold surge events that occurred in November 2022, in the Bohai Bay Area, China. To make a thorough investigation of those complex meteorological processes, the WRF model was configured over Bohai Bay with a high spatial resolution of 2 km in the horizontal direction, and results were verified using three accessible meteorological stations around the Shandong Peninsula. Our studies demonstrate that the WRF tends to perform better in strong winds than in weak ones, particularly in the simulation of wind direction. Besides, Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2.5) and Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) PBL schemes demonstrate superior performance in simulating wind speed and sea fog, respectively, compared with the Noah‐MP scheme. Unified Noah demonstrates superior performance in dew point temperature and humidity compared with both Noah‐MP and 5‐layer thermal diffusion schemes, whereas Noah‐MP excels in temperature performance. Finally, we utilize the optimal results produced by the WRF model and integrate them with the risk thresholds for ship navigation. This allows us to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of risks associated with strong winds and fog during navigation in the Bohai Bay area. The abovementioned findings are supposed to be helpful for make more accurate weather forecast of strong wind and dense fog in future cold surge events, from the viewpoint of a safe maritime transportation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-42c8fe3c50ad478ca081568cc67756d3 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1350-4827 1469-8080 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorological Applications |
| spelling | doaj-art-42c8fe3c50ad478ca081568cc67756d32025-08-20T03:15:05ZengWileyMeteorological Applications1350-48271469-80802025-03-01322n/an/a10.1002/met.70029Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transportChen Chen0Haoyu Chen1Kenji Sasa2School of Navigation Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan ChinaSchool of Navigation Wuhan University of Technology Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Maritime Sciences Kobe University Kobe JapanAbstract Cold surges can significantly affect maritime transportation safety, owing to the strong wind, significant temperature drop, as well as dense fog. Therefore, it is crucial to make an accurate prediction of meteorological phenomenon in the maritime regions during cold surges. The present study evaluates the performance of planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface schemes in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, specifically for the wind (wind speed and direction) and fog (temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity), during two cold surge events that occurred in November 2022, in the Bohai Bay Area, China. To make a thorough investigation of those complex meteorological processes, the WRF model was configured over Bohai Bay with a high spatial resolution of 2 km in the horizontal direction, and results were verified using three accessible meteorological stations around the Shandong Peninsula. Our studies demonstrate that the WRF tends to perform better in strong winds than in weak ones, particularly in the simulation of wind direction. Besides, Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2.5) and Yonsei University Scheme (YSU) PBL schemes demonstrate superior performance in simulating wind speed and sea fog, respectively, compared with the Noah‐MP scheme. Unified Noah demonstrates superior performance in dew point temperature and humidity compared with both Noah‐MP and 5‐layer thermal diffusion schemes, whereas Noah‐MP excels in temperature performance. Finally, we utilize the optimal results produced by the WRF model and integrate them with the risk thresholds for ship navigation. This allows us to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of risks associated with strong winds and fog during navigation in the Bohai Bay area. The abovementioned findings are supposed to be helpful for make more accurate weather forecast of strong wind and dense fog in future cold surge events, from the viewpoint of a safe maritime transportation.https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70029cold surgefogmaritime transportation safetyphysics parameterization schemeswindWRF model |
| spellingShingle | Chen Chen Haoyu Chen Kenji Sasa Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport Meteorological Applications cold surge fog maritime transportation safety physics parameterization schemes wind WRF model |
| title | Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| title_full | Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| title_fullStr | Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| title_short | Study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| title_sort | study on the forecasting of two cold surge events from the viewpoint of maritime transport |
| topic | cold surge fog maritime transportation safety physics parameterization schemes wind WRF model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70029 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chenchen studyontheforecastingoftwocoldsurgeeventsfromtheviewpointofmaritimetransport AT haoyuchen studyontheforecastingoftwocoldsurgeeventsfromtheviewpointofmaritimetransport AT kenjisasa studyontheforecastingoftwocoldsurgeeventsfromtheviewpointofmaritimetransport |