Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts
Objective: Stratified life expectancy loss by education levels and sex helps measure particular mortality impacts during a catastrophic event. We propose a statistical approach to estimate them using the US case during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Method: First, we estimate life expectancies acco...
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| Language: | English |
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Universidad de Costa Rica
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Población y Salud en Mesoamérica |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/58896 |
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| author | Carlos Oviedo Jose Eliud Silva Urrutia |
| author_facet | Carlos Oviedo Jose Eliud Silva Urrutia |
| author_sort | Carlos Oviedo |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Objective: Stratified life expectancy loss by education levels and sex helps measure particular mortality impacts during a catastrophic event. We propose a statistical approach to estimate them using the US case during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Method: First, we estimate life expectancies according to available data, including those years when catastrophic events occur. Second, we use them to calculate a valid multivariate time series VAR(p) model, omitting the respective catastrophic(s) year(s). Through the model, we generate forecasts, which are compared with estimated data, and afterward, the life expectancy losses are quantified as their differences. Results: Less than four times the life expectancy losses with low education compared to the high education group. Our projections also indicate that life expectancies with almost all education falls outside the forecast intervals. Conclusion: The more educated the population is, the less life expectancy is lost. Women always outlive men within each education stratum. Long-term estimates continue to underscore gender disparities in life expectancy.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-41fcf154180c4c66a96c9e1d94630fbc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1659-0201 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Universidad de Costa Rica |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Población y Salud en Mesoamérica |
| spelling | doaj-art-41fcf154180c4c66a96c9e1d94630fbc2025-08-20T01:56:56ZengUniversidad de Costa RicaPoblación y Salud en Mesoamérica1659-02012024-11-0122110.15517/psm.v22i1.58896Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecastsCarlos Oviedo0Jose Eliud Silva Urrutia1Universidad Anáhuac México, MEXICO Universidad Anáhuac México, MEXICO Objective: Stratified life expectancy loss by education levels and sex helps measure particular mortality impacts during a catastrophic event. We propose a statistical approach to estimate them using the US case during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Method: First, we estimate life expectancies according to available data, including those years when catastrophic events occur. Second, we use them to calculate a valid multivariate time series VAR(p) model, omitting the respective catastrophic(s) year(s). Through the model, we generate forecasts, which are compared with estimated data, and afterward, the life expectancy losses are quantified as their differences. Results: Less than four times the life expectancy losses with low education compared to the high education group. Our projections also indicate that life expectancies with almost all education falls outside the forecast intervals. Conclusion: The more educated the population is, the less life expectancy is lost. Women always outlive men within each education stratum. Long-term estimates continue to underscore gender disparities in life expectancy. https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/58896life expectancy lossVAR modelmultivariate forecastseducation level |
| spellingShingle | Carlos Oviedo Jose Eliud Silva Urrutia Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts Población y Salud en Mesoamérica life expectancy loss VAR model multivariate forecasts education level |
| title | Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts |
| title_full | Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts |
| title_short | Life expectancy loss by education level and sex: the impact of COVID-19 in the US (2020) and their forecasts |
| title_sort | life expectancy loss by education level and sex the impact of covid 19 in the us 2020 and their forecasts |
| topic | life expectancy loss VAR model multivariate forecasts education level |
| url | https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/psm/article/view/58896 |
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