High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries
Abstract Background Anemia, a severe condition among children associated with adverse health effects such as impaired growth, limited physical and cognitive development, and increased mortality risk, remains widespread, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study combines Demographi...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00765-2 |
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| author | Johannes Seiler Mattias Wetscher Kenneth Harttgen Jürg Utzinger Nikolaus Umlauf |
| author_facet | Johannes Seiler Mattias Wetscher Kenneth Harttgen Jürg Utzinger Nikolaus Umlauf |
| author_sort | Johannes Seiler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Anemia, a severe condition among children associated with adverse health effects such as impaired growth, limited physical and cognitive development, and increased mortality risk, remains widespread, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study combines Demographic and Health Surveys data with remotely sensed climate, demographic, environmental, and geo-spatial information, creating a data set comprising about 750,000 observations on childhood anemia from 37 countries. It is used to provide high-resolution spatio-temporal estimates of all forms of childhood anemia between 2005 and 2020. Methods Employing full probabilistic Bayesian distributional regression models, the research accurately predicts age-specific and spatially varying anemia risks. These models enable the assessment of the complete distribution of hemoglobin levels. Additionally, this analysis also provides predictions at a high resolution, allowing precise monitoring of this indicator, aligned with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2. Results This analysis provides high-resolution estimates for all forms of anemia and reveals and identifies striking disparities within and between countries. Based on these estimates, the prevalence of anemia decreased from 65.0% [62.6%–67.4%] in sub-Saharan Africa and 63.1% [60.6%–65.5%] in South Asia in 2010 to 63.4% [60.7%–66.0%] in sub-Saharan Africa and 58.8% [56.4%–61.3%] in South Asia in 2020. This translates into approximately 98.7 [94.5–102.8] million and 95.1 [91.1–99.0] million affected children aged 6 to 59 months in 2020, respectively, making it a major public health concern. Conclusions Our approach facilitates the monitoring of age-specific spatio-temporal dynamics and the identification of hotspots related to this important global public health issue. To our knowledge, this represents the first high-resolution mapping of anemia risk in children. In addition, these results reveal striking disparities between and within countries and highlight the influence of socio-economic and environmental factors on this condition. The findings can guide efforts to improve health systems, promote education, and implement interventions that break the cycle of poverty and anemia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-41ce30af998e4eba84f9bd93f164b660 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2730-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-41ce30af998e4eba84f9bd93f164b6602025-08-20T03:05:48ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Medicine2730-664X2025-03-015111210.1038/s43856-025-00765-2High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countriesJohannes Seiler0Mattias Wetscher1Kenneth Harttgen2Jürg Utzinger3Nikolaus Umlauf4Department of Statistics, University of InnsbruckDepartment of Statistics, University of InnsbruckDevelopment Economics Group, ETH ZurichSwiss Tropical and Public Health InstituteDepartment of Statistics, University of InnsbruckAbstract Background Anemia, a severe condition among children associated with adverse health effects such as impaired growth, limited physical and cognitive development, and increased mortality risk, remains widespread, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study combines Demographic and Health Surveys data with remotely sensed climate, demographic, environmental, and geo-spatial information, creating a data set comprising about 750,000 observations on childhood anemia from 37 countries. It is used to provide high-resolution spatio-temporal estimates of all forms of childhood anemia between 2005 and 2020. Methods Employing full probabilistic Bayesian distributional regression models, the research accurately predicts age-specific and spatially varying anemia risks. These models enable the assessment of the complete distribution of hemoglobin levels. Additionally, this analysis also provides predictions at a high resolution, allowing precise monitoring of this indicator, aligned with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2. Results This analysis provides high-resolution estimates for all forms of anemia and reveals and identifies striking disparities within and between countries. Based on these estimates, the prevalence of anemia decreased from 65.0% [62.6%–67.4%] in sub-Saharan Africa and 63.1% [60.6%–65.5%] in South Asia in 2010 to 63.4% [60.7%–66.0%] in sub-Saharan Africa and 58.8% [56.4%–61.3%] in South Asia in 2020. This translates into approximately 98.7 [94.5–102.8] million and 95.1 [91.1–99.0] million affected children aged 6 to 59 months in 2020, respectively, making it a major public health concern. Conclusions Our approach facilitates the monitoring of age-specific spatio-temporal dynamics and the identification of hotspots related to this important global public health issue. To our knowledge, this represents the first high-resolution mapping of anemia risk in children. In addition, these results reveal striking disparities between and within countries and highlight the influence of socio-economic and environmental factors on this condition. The findings can guide efforts to improve health systems, promote education, and implement interventions that break the cycle of poverty and anemia.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00765-2 |
| spellingShingle | Johannes Seiler Mattias Wetscher Kenneth Harttgen Jürg Utzinger Nikolaus Umlauf High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries Communications Medicine |
| title | High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries |
| title_full | High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries |
| title_fullStr | High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries |
| title_short | High-resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low- and middle-income countries |
| title_sort | high resolution spatial prediction of anemia risk among children aged 6 to 59 months in low and middle income countries |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-025-00765-2 |
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