Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool
Ethiopia relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making its agricultural sector highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Adaptation strategies informed by projections of future climate conditions can help mitigate these impacts effectively. This study demonstrates how a science-based app...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000585 |
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| author | Israel Gebresilasie Kimo Tewodros Addisu Yate Bisrat Elias Cholo Thomas Torora Minda Esatu Bekele Bayde |
| author_facet | Israel Gebresilasie Kimo Tewodros Addisu Yate Bisrat Elias Cholo Thomas Torora Minda Esatu Bekele Bayde |
| author_sort | Israel Gebresilasie Kimo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ethiopia relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making its agricultural sector highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Adaptation strategies informed by projections of future climate conditions can help mitigate these impacts effectively. This study demonstrates how a science-based approach, specifically the climate analogues methodology, can be used to envision site-specific future agricultural conditions and identify potential adaptation strategies. While such approaches have been increasingly applied elsewhere, their use in Ethiopia remains limited. Therefore, this study applies the analogues tool developed by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program to identify a site whose current climate is analogues to the future climate of the study areas—Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke Districts, aiming to highlight potential adaptation pathways. The result shows that Key-Afer and Boreda in Ethiopia, as well as Migori and Narok counties in Kenya, are analogue sites to Arba Minch Zuria. Furthermore, Dita Zada and Chencha in Ethiopia are analogue sites to Bonke. Farmers in Key-Afer analogue site engage in various climate response strategies, including planting different crop varieties (90.7 %), changing planting dates (51.8 %), and soil and water conservation measures (46.3 %). Moreover, farmers in Migori County, Kenya, analogue site apply mixed farming (96.5 %), non-intensive dairying (95.1 %), and establish their own feed (92.4 %). Understanding current climatic conditions and agricultural practices in these analogue areas can inform adaptation planning, as they provide a glimpse into the future conditions of the study area. The findings of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers and the scientific community aiming to design effective climate change adaptation strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-419f5f8cf7fa4da794c698987da192c1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj-art-419f5f8cf7fa4da794c698987da192c12025-08-20T04:01:02ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072025-08-013910059710.1016/j.cliser.2025.100597Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue toolIsrael Gebresilasie Kimo0Tewodros Addisu Yate1Bisrat Elias Cholo2Thomas Torora Minda3Esatu Bekele Bayde4Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.Faculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia; School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Hongshan District, Wuhan, ChinaFaculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, EthiopiaFaculty of Meteorology and Hydrology, Arba Minch Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, EthiopiaLivestock and Fishery Research Center, College of Agricultural Sciences, Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, EthiopiaEthiopia relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making its agricultural sector highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Adaptation strategies informed by projections of future climate conditions can help mitigate these impacts effectively. This study demonstrates how a science-based approach, specifically the climate analogues methodology, can be used to envision site-specific future agricultural conditions and identify potential adaptation strategies. While such approaches have been increasingly applied elsewhere, their use in Ethiopia remains limited. Therefore, this study applies the analogues tool developed by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program to identify a site whose current climate is analogues to the future climate of the study areas—Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke Districts, aiming to highlight potential adaptation pathways. The result shows that Key-Afer and Boreda in Ethiopia, as well as Migori and Narok counties in Kenya, are analogue sites to Arba Minch Zuria. Furthermore, Dita Zada and Chencha in Ethiopia are analogue sites to Bonke. Farmers in Key-Afer analogue site engage in various climate response strategies, including planting different crop varieties (90.7 %), changing planting dates (51.8 %), and soil and water conservation measures (46.3 %). Moreover, farmers in Migori County, Kenya, analogue site apply mixed farming (96.5 %), non-intensive dairying (95.1 %), and establish their own feed (92.4 %). Understanding current climatic conditions and agricultural practices in these analogue areas can inform adaptation planning, as they provide a glimpse into the future conditions of the study area. The findings of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers and the scientific community aiming to design effective climate change adaptation strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000585Adaptation pathwaysAnalogue siteCCAFSClimate ChangeWorldClim |
| spellingShingle | Israel Gebresilasie Kimo Tewodros Addisu Yate Bisrat Elias Cholo Thomas Torora Minda Esatu Bekele Bayde Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool Climate Services Adaptation pathways Analogue site CCAFS Climate Change WorldClim |
| title | Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool |
| title_full | Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool |
| title_fullStr | Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool |
| title_full_unstemmed | Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool |
| title_short | Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool |
| title_sort | exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in arba minch zuria and bonke districts based on ccafs climate analogue tool |
| topic | Adaptation pathways Analogue site CCAFS Climate Change WorldClim |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880725000585 |
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