Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021
ObjectiveTo examine the current status and trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021. MethodsData on CRC burden in China, Asia, and the global population from 1990 to 2021 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database for descriptive analysis. An...
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Magazine House of Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Zhongliu Fangzhi Yanjiu |
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| Online Access: | http://www.zlfzyj.com/cn/article/doi/10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2025.24.1182 |
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| author | Tongzhou WANG Juanfang ZHU Jin ZHOU Pan ZHANG Qin TANG |
| author_facet | Tongzhou WANG Juanfang ZHU Jin ZHOU Pan ZHANG Qin TANG |
| author_sort | Tongzhou WANG |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectiveTo examine the current status and trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021. MethodsData on CRC burden in China, Asia, and the global population from 1990 to 2021 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database for descriptive analysis. An age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort on CRC mortality and to forecast changes in disease burden. ResultsIn 2021, China’s age-standardized mortality rate, prevalence rate, and DALY rate for CRC were higher than global and Asian averages. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) from 1990 to 2021 were −0.49% (95%CI: −0.55% to −0.43%) for mortality, 3.17% (95%CI: 3.03%−3.31%) for prevalence, and −0.62% (95%CI: −0.71% to −0.54%) for DALYs. Areas with high and medium-high sociodemographic indexes (SDIs) showed significant decreases in standardized mortality and DALY rates, but these rates remained higher compared with other regions. CRC mortality increased with age in the Chinese population, more prominently in males than in females. Using the 2002–2006 period as a reference (RR=1), the period effect on CRC mortality risk for women was higher than that for men until 2004, after which it declined considerably. With the 1957 birth cohort as a reference (RR=1), CRC mortality risk generally decreased across subsequent birth cohorts. Predictions indicate that by 2035, the standardized prevalence rate will be 267.21 per 100 000, and the standardized mortality rate will be 12.29 per 100 000. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, China’s age-standardized CRC mortality and DALY rates have decreased, while the standardized prevalence rate has increased. These findings suggest the government to establish a comprehensive multi-level CRC prevention network. |
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| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1000-8578 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Magazine House of Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment |
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| series | Zhongliu Fangzhi Yanjiu |
| spelling | doaj-art-41981b20c8cb497fb867e37f4a2982e72025-08-20T02:28:24ZzhoMagazine House of Cancer Research on Prevention and TreatmentZhongliu Fangzhi Yanjiu1000-85782025-04-0152431932310.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2025.24.118220241182Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021Tongzhou WANG0Juanfang ZHU1Jin ZHOU2Pan ZHANG3Qin TANG4Hospital Quality Management Office, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital (Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University/Jiangsu Cancer Center), Nanjing 210000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital (Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University/Jiangsu Cancer Center), Nanjing 210000, ChinaDepartment of Public Health, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital (Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University/Jiangsu Cancer Center), Nanjing 210000, ChinaSichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Health Education, Chengdu 610041, ChinaHospital Quality Management Office, Jiangsu Cancer Hospital (Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University/Jiangsu Cancer Center), Nanjing 210000, ChinaObjectiveTo examine the current status and trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) burden among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021. MethodsData on CRC burden in China, Asia, and the global population from 1990 to 2021 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database for descriptive analysis. An age-period-cohort model was employed to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort on CRC mortality and to forecast changes in disease burden. ResultsIn 2021, China’s age-standardized mortality rate, prevalence rate, and DALY rate for CRC were higher than global and Asian averages. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) from 1990 to 2021 were −0.49% (95%CI: −0.55% to −0.43%) for mortality, 3.17% (95%CI: 3.03%−3.31%) for prevalence, and −0.62% (95%CI: −0.71% to −0.54%) for DALYs. Areas with high and medium-high sociodemographic indexes (SDIs) showed significant decreases in standardized mortality and DALY rates, but these rates remained higher compared with other regions. CRC mortality increased with age in the Chinese population, more prominently in males than in females. Using the 2002–2006 period as a reference (RR=1), the period effect on CRC mortality risk for women was higher than that for men until 2004, after which it declined considerably. With the 1957 birth cohort as a reference (RR=1), CRC mortality risk generally decreased across subsequent birth cohorts. Predictions indicate that by 2035, the standardized prevalence rate will be 267.21 per 100 000, and the standardized mortality rate will be 12.29 per 100 000. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, China’s age-standardized CRC mortality and DALY rates have decreased, while the standardized prevalence rate has increased. These findings suggest the government to establish a comprehensive multi-level CRC prevention network.http://www.zlfzyj.com/cn/article/doi/10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2025.24.1182colorectal cancerchinese populationburden of diseaseforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Tongzhou WANG Juanfang ZHU Jin ZHOU Pan ZHANG Qin TANG Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 Zhongliu Fangzhi Yanjiu colorectal cancer chinese population burden of disease forecasting |
| title | Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full | Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_short | Variation Tendency and Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Burden Among Chinese Population from 1990 to 2021 |
| title_sort | variation tendency and prediction of colorectal cancer burden among chinese population from 1990 to 2021 |
| topic | colorectal cancer chinese population burden of disease forecasting |
| url | http://www.zlfzyj.com/cn/article/doi/10.3971/j.issn.1000-8578.2025.24.1182 |
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