Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and economy of more than 200 countries worldwide. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological tendencies of an epidemic and to develop methods for controlling it. I...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5522928 |
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| author | Ahmed Msmali Mutum Zico Idir Mechai Abdullah Ahmadini |
| author_facet | Ahmed Msmali Mutum Zico Idir Mechai Abdullah Ahmadini |
| author_sort | Ahmed Msmali |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and economy of more than 200 countries worldwide. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological tendencies of an epidemic and to develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use a mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from March 2, 2020, to January 8, 2021, were collected from the Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, 363,692 people were infected, resulting in 6293 deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.73%. There was a weak positive relationship between the spread of infection and mortality R2=0.459. We used the susceptible-exposed-infection-recovered (SEIR) model, a logistic growth model, with a special focus on the exposed, infected, and recovered individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, hygienic conditions, and travel limitations are crucial measures to prevent further spread of the epidemic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-40b9d67648e54adc8d837de5c25bd73f |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1026-0226 1607-887X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| spelling | doaj-art-40b9d67648e54adc8d837de5c25bd73f2025-08-20T02:39:13ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1026-02261607-887X2021-01-01202110.1155/2021/55229285522928Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi ArabiaAhmed Msmali0Mutum Zico1Idir Mechai2Abdullah Ahmadini3Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jazan University, Jizan, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jazan University, Jizan, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jazan University, Jizan, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jazan University, Jizan, Saudi ArabiaThe novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in an ongoing pandemic affecting the health system and economy of more than 200 countries worldwide. Mathematical models are used to predict the biological and epidemiological tendencies of an epidemic and to develop methods for controlling it. In this work, we use a mathematical model perspective to study the role of behavior change in slowing the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. The real-time updated data from March 2, 2020, to January 8, 2021, were collected from the Saudi Ministry of Health, aiming to provide dynamic behaviors of the epidemic in Saudi Arabia. During this period, 363,692 people were infected, resulting in 6293 deaths, with a mortality rate of 1.73%. There was a weak positive relationship between the spread of infection and mortality R2=0.459. We used the susceptible-exposed-infection-recovered (SEIR) model, a logistic growth model, with a special focus on the exposed, infected, and recovered individuals to simulate the final phase of the outbreak. The results indicate that social distancing, hygienic conditions, and travel limitations are crucial measures to prevent further spread of the epidemic.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5522928 |
| spellingShingle | Ahmed Msmali Mutum Zico Idir Mechai Abdullah Ahmadini Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| title | Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia |
| title_full | Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia |
| title_short | Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia |
| title_sort | modeling and simulation a study on predicting the outbreak of covid 19 in saudi arabia |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5522928 |
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