An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million

In advanced countries such as the USA and China, some cities are characterized by “knowledge spillover industries”, which play crucial roles in driving innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. However, the excessive expansion of megacities in China has led to the overabsorption of labour f...

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Main Authors: Xiaohui Gao, Qinghua Chen, Ya Zhou, Siyu Huang, Yi Shi, Xiaomeng Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Urban Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/9/7/245
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author Xiaohui Gao
Qinghua Chen
Ya Zhou
Siyu Huang
Yi Shi
Xiaomeng Li
author_facet Xiaohui Gao
Qinghua Chen
Ya Zhou
Siyu Huang
Yi Shi
Xiaomeng Li
author_sort Xiaohui Gao
collection DOAJ
description In advanced countries such as the USA and China, some cities are characterized by “knowledge spillover industries”, which play crucial roles in driving innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. However, the excessive expansion of megacities in China has led to the overabsorption of labour from other cities. The unchecked growth of individual megacities causes metropolitan malaise and regional imbalance, further limiting the emergence of new “knowledge spillover” cities, which is detrimental to overall economic development. This study analyses China’s employment population structure to identify the critical population size required for the formation of “knowledge spillover” cities. The results show that 10 million is the unique threshold for which cities with populations above this size see a significant improvement in the prominence of “knowledge spillover” industries. Therefore, a population base of approximately 10 million is essential for these cities to thrive. This result suggests that China should pay more attention to the construction of urban agglomerations as geographic or administrative units to better distribute resources and promote balanced regional development. This approach can help foster the emergence of more “knowledge spillover” cities, thereby enhancing national innovation capacity and economic growth.
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issn 2413-8851
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spelling doaj-art-4099d5ca578840fa8abcf1283bc4dafa2025-08-20T03:32:16ZengMDPI AGUrban Science2413-88512025-06-019724510.3390/urbansci9070245An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 MillionXiaohui Gao0Qinghua Chen1Ya Zhou2Siyu Huang3Yi Shi4Xiaomeng Li5School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaChina Population and Development Research Centre, Beijing 100081, ChinaSchool of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaIn advanced countries such as the USA and China, some cities are characterized by “knowledge spillover industries”, which play crucial roles in driving innovation, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. However, the excessive expansion of megacities in China has led to the overabsorption of labour from other cities. The unchecked growth of individual megacities causes metropolitan malaise and regional imbalance, further limiting the emergence of new “knowledge spillover” cities, which is detrimental to overall economic development. This study analyses China’s employment population structure to identify the critical population size required for the formation of “knowledge spillover” cities. The results show that 10 million is the unique threshold for which cities with populations above this size see a significant improvement in the prominence of “knowledge spillover” industries. Therefore, a population base of approximately 10 million is essential for these cities to thrive. This result suggests that China should pay more attention to the construction of urban agglomerations as geographic or administrative units to better distribute resources and promote balanced regional development. This approach can help foster the emergence of more “knowledge spillover” cities, thereby enhancing national innovation capacity and economic growth.https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/9/7/245populationurban developmentknowledge spilloverindustrial employmentinnovative cities
spellingShingle Xiaohui Gao
Qinghua Chen
Ya Zhou
Siyu Huang
Yi Shi
Xiaomeng Li
An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
Urban Science
population
urban development
knowledge spillover
industrial employment
innovative cities
title An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
title_full An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
title_fullStr An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
title_full_unstemmed An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
title_short An Empirical Evaluation of the Critical Population Size for “Knowledge Spillover” Cities in China: The Significance of 10 Million
title_sort empirical evaluation of the critical population size for knowledge spillover cities in china the significance of 10 million
topic population
urban development
knowledge spillover
industrial employment
innovative cities
url https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/9/7/245
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