Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021
Against the backdrop of intensified global climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in mainland China continue to rise due to its unique topography and complex climate types. In-depth research on the trends and impacts of climate extremes can help develop effective adapt...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| author | Xulei Wang Lifeng Wu Huiying Liu |
| author_facet | Xulei Wang Lifeng Wu Huiying Liu |
| author_sort | Xulei Wang |
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| description | Against the backdrop of intensified global climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in mainland China continue to rise due to its unique topography and complex climate types. In-depth research on the trends and impacts of climate extremes can help develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect the environment and enhance social resilience. In this research, temperature data from 2029 meteorological stations for the period 1961–2021 were used to study 15 extreme temperature indices and 3 extreme composite temperature indices. Linear propensity estimation and the Mann–Kendall test were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in extreme temperatures in China, and Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to reveal the relationship between these indices and atmospheric circulation. The results show that in the past 60 years, the extreme temperature index in China has shown a trend of decreasing low-temperature events and increasing high-temperature events; in particular, the increase in warm nights is significantly higher than that of warm days. In terms of spatial distribution, daily maximum temperature less than the 10th percentile (TX10P) and daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile (TN90P) increased significantly in the warm temperate sub-humid (WTSH) region, north subtropical humid (NSH) region, and marginal tropical humid (MTH) region, whereas frost days (FD0) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased significantly. In the extreme composite temperature index, extreme temperature range (ETR) showed a downward trend, while compound heatwave (CHW) and compound heatwave and relative humidity (CHW-RH20) increased, with the latter mainly concentrated in the WTSH and NSH regions. Correlation analysis with climate oscillation shows that Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multiannual Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are positively correlated with extremely high temperatures, whereas North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are negatively correlated. |
| format | Article |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-404a8dfeb5a04a4c9a89a91782cd6dca2025-08-20T02:26:45ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-11-011511139810.3390/atmos15111398Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021Xulei Wang0Lifeng Wu1Huiying Liu2School of Water Conservancy and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaSchool of Water Conservancy and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaSchool of Water Conservancy and Ecological Engineering, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330099, ChinaAgainst the backdrop of intensified global climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in mainland China continue to rise due to its unique topography and complex climate types. In-depth research on the trends and impacts of climate extremes can help develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect the environment and enhance social resilience. In this research, temperature data from 2029 meteorological stations for the period 1961–2021 were used to study 15 extreme temperature indices and 3 extreme composite temperature indices. Linear propensity estimation and the Mann–Kendall test were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal variations in extreme temperatures in China, and Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to reveal the relationship between these indices and atmospheric circulation. The results show that in the past 60 years, the extreme temperature index in China has shown a trend of decreasing low-temperature events and increasing high-temperature events; in particular, the increase in warm nights is significantly higher than that of warm days. In terms of spatial distribution, daily maximum temperature less than the 10th percentile (TX10P) and daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile (TN90P) increased significantly in the warm temperate sub-humid (WTSH) region, north subtropical humid (NSH) region, and marginal tropical humid (MTH) region, whereas frost days (FD0) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased significantly. In the extreme composite temperature index, extreme temperature range (ETR) showed a downward trend, while compound heatwave (CHW) and compound heatwave and relative humidity (CHW-RH20) increased, with the latter mainly concentrated in the WTSH and NSH regions. Correlation analysis with climate oscillation shows that Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multiannual Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are positively correlated with extremely high temperatures, whereas North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are negatively correlated.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1398extreme composite temperature indexChina regionspace–time changeclimate oscillationMann–Kendall test |
| spellingShingle | Xulei Wang Lifeng Wu Huiying Liu Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 Atmosphere extreme composite temperature index China region space–time change climate oscillation Mann–Kendall test |
| title | Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| title_full | Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| title_short | Extreme Temperature Index in China from a Statistical Perspective: Change Characteristics and Trend Analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| title_sort | extreme temperature index in china from a statistical perspective change characteristics and trend analysis from 1961 to 2021 |
| topic | extreme composite temperature index China region space–time change climate oscillation Mann–Kendall test |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1398 |
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