A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis
Abstract Background Surgical intervention could improve the prognosis of infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), but it’s also an independent risk factor for severe complications and death. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of infants with surgical NEC. Methods...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Italian Journal of Pediatrics |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13052-025-02094-5 |
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| _version_ | 1849331634853117952 |
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| author | Jin Yu Chen Qian Yang Li Rong Dai Wei Yue Wu Wei Zuo Li Li Wang |
| author_facet | Jin Yu Chen Qian Yang Li Rong Dai Wei Yue Wu Wei Zuo Li Li Wang |
| author_sort | Jin Yu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Surgical intervention could improve the prognosis of infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), but it’s also an independent risk factor for severe complications and death. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of infants with surgical NEC. Methods A total of 189 infants with surgical NEC were enrolled from January 2013 to May 2024. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors. Then, a nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors. Results This study demonstrated that gestational age, patent ductus arteriosus, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and serum chlorine ion within 24 h before surgery, and pH within 24 h after surgery were independent risk factors to predict the prognosis of infants with surgical NEC. A nomogram was created utilizing the five predictors and showed excellent discriminative ability, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.842 [95% CI:0.772–0.912]. The concordance index for training and validation groups were 0.842 and 0.870, respectively. Conclusions The present study identified five independent predictors of poor prognosis in infants with surgical NEC and used them to establish a nomogram model, helping pediatricians identify poor prognosis in surgical NEC infants early and providing important clinical reference information. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-402ab5ca56ef4c1b8c6a0ee088bc2263 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1824-7288 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Italian Journal of Pediatrics |
| spelling | doaj-art-402ab5ca56ef4c1b8c6a0ee088bc22632025-08-20T03:46:28ZengBMCItalian Journal of Pediatrics1824-72882025-08-0151111310.1186/s13052-025-02094-5A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitisJin Yu Chen0Qian Yang1Li Rong Dai2Wei Yue Wu3Wei Zuo4Li Li Wang5Department of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityDepartment of pediatrics, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical UniversityAbstract Background Surgical intervention could improve the prognosis of infants with necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), but it’s also an independent risk factor for severe complications and death. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of infants with surgical NEC. Methods A total of 189 infants with surgical NEC were enrolled from January 2013 to May 2024. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors. Then, a nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors. Results This study demonstrated that gestational age, patent ductus arteriosus, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and serum chlorine ion within 24 h before surgery, and pH within 24 h after surgery were independent risk factors to predict the prognosis of infants with surgical NEC. A nomogram was created utilizing the five predictors and showed excellent discriminative ability, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.842 [95% CI:0.772–0.912]. The concordance index for training and validation groups were 0.842 and 0.870, respectively. Conclusions The present study identified five independent predictors of poor prognosis in infants with surgical NEC and used them to establish a nomogram model, helping pediatricians identify poor prognosis in surgical NEC infants early and providing important clinical reference information.https://doi.org/10.1186/s13052-025-02094-5InfantsNecrotizing enterocolitis (NEC)NomogramPrognosisSurgery |
| spellingShingle | Jin Yu Chen Qian Yang Li Rong Dai Wei Yue Wu Wei Zuo Li Li Wang A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis Italian Journal of Pediatrics Infants Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) Nomogram Prognosis Surgery |
| title | A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| title_full | A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| title_fullStr | A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| title_full_unstemmed | A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| title_short | A predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| title_sort | predictive model for prognosis in infants with surgical necrotizing enterocolitis |
| topic | Infants Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) Nomogram Prognosis Surgery |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13052-025-02094-5 |
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