Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach

Urban sprawl poses a significant and escalating challenge in developing countries, including Iran, leading to substantial transformations in urban areas. Despite efforts to manage urban spatial development, uncontrolled urban sprawl exerts considerable pressure on resources, infrastructure, and the...

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Main Authors: Ali Soltani, Parviz Azizi, Masoud Javadpoor, Andrew Allan, Bagher Bagheri
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-02-01
Series:Land
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/311
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author Ali Soltani
Parviz Azizi
Masoud Javadpoor
Andrew Allan
Bagher Bagheri
author_facet Ali Soltani
Parviz Azizi
Masoud Javadpoor
Andrew Allan
Bagher Bagheri
author_sort Ali Soltani
collection DOAJ
description Urban sprawl poses a significant and escalating challenge in developing countries, including Iran, leading to substantial transformations in urban areas. Despite efforts to manage urban spatial development, uncontrolled urban sprawl exerts considerable pressure on resources, infrastructure, and the environment. This study aims to identify and quantify the drivers of urban sprawl and investigate their interrelationships within Iranian metropolises. To achieve this objective, the study employs a mixed-method approach, commencing with a review of the existing literature and expert surveys based on PESTEL analysis and the Delphi method. This stage identified and categorized 40 key drivers (sub-factors) into six main categories (factors): political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Subsequently, the DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP) method is utilized to explore the internal interrelationships among factors and sub-factors and to determine their relative weights, offering deeper insights into their relationships and relative importance. The findings reveal a complex interplay of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors driving urban sprawl in Iran. Key drivers include political fragmentation, economic competition, social preferences for suburban living, rural-to-urban migration, increasing housing demand, weak legal regulations, natural constraints, inadequate transportation infrastructure, and the impact of technological advancements. Based on these findings, the study recommends a holistic approach to sustainable urban development in Iran, emphasizing the need for stakeholder engagement, participatory decision making, legal reforms, and significant investments in public transportation infrastructure.
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spelling doaj-art-3fc43d26ef974b789f2976c8badbc9cc2025-08-20T02:03:31ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2025-02-0114231110.3390/land14020311Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP ApproachAli Soltani0Parviz Azizi1Masoud Javadpoor2Andrew Allan3Bagher Bagheri4FHMRI, Flinders University, Bedford Park, Adelaide, SA 5042, AustraliaDepartment of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art & Architecture, Urmia University, Urmia 5756151818, IranDepartment of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art & Architecture, Shiraz University, Shiraz 7194684471, IranUniSA Creative, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, AustraliaIndependent Researcher, Shiraz 7194684471, IranUrban sprawl poses a significant and escalating challenge in developing countries, including Iran, leading to substantial transformations in urban areas. Despite efforts to manage urban spatial development, uncontrolled urban sprawl exerts considerable pressure on resources, infrastructure, and the environment. This study aims to identify and quantify the drivers of urban sprawl and investigate their interrelationships within Iranian metropolises. To achieve this objective, the study employs a mixed-method approach, commencing with a review of the existing literature and expert surveys based on PESTEL analysis and the Delphi method. This stage identified and categorized 40 key drivers (sub-factors) into six main categories (factors): political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Subsequently, the DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP) method is utilized to explore the internal interrelationships among factors and sub-factors and to determine their relative weights, offering deeper insights into their relationships and relative importance. The findings reveal a complex interplay of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors driving urban sprawl in Iran. Key drivers include political fragmentation, economic competition, social preferences for suburban living, rural-to-urban migration, increasing housing demand, weak legal regulations, natural constraints, inadequate transportation infrastructure, and the impact of technological advancements. Based on these findings, the study recommends a holistic approach to sustainable urban development in Iran, emphasizing the need for stakeholder engagement, participatory decision making, legal reforms, and significant investments in public transportation infrastructure.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/311urban sprawlspatial developmentdeveloping countriesmetropolitan areasIran
spellingShingle Ali Soltani
Parviz Azizi
Masoud Javadpoor
Andrew Allan
Bagher Bagheri
Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
Land
urban sprawl
spatial development
developing countries
metropolitan areas
Iran
title Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
title_full Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
title_fullStr Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
title_full_unstemmed Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
title_short Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach
title_sort determining and quantifying urban sprawl drivers a delphi danp approach
topic urban sprawl
spatial development
developing countries
metropolitan areas
Iran
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/311
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