The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America
Abstract An increase in winter air temperature can amplify snowmelt and sublimation in mountain regions with implications to water resources and ecological systems. Winter Warm Spells (WWS) are defined as a winter period (December to February, DJF) of at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum t...
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Wiley
2024-05-01
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| Series: | Water Resources Research |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034492 |
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| author | Lucia Scaff Sebastian A. Krogh Keith Musselman Adrian Harpold Yanping Li Mario Lillo‐Saavedra Ricardo Oyarzún Roy Rasmussen |
| author_facet | Lucia Scaff Sebastian A. Krogh Keith Musselman Adrian Harpold Yanping Li Mario Lillo‐Saavedra Ricardo Oyarzún Roy Rasmussen |
| author_sort | Lucia Scaff |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract An increase in winter air temperature can amplify snowmelt and sublimation in mountain regions with implications to water resources and ecological systems. Winter Warm Spells (WWS) are defined as a winter period (December to February, DJF) of at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature anomaly above the 90th percentile (using a moving‐average of 15 days between 2001 and 2013). We calculate WWS for every 4‐km grid cell within an atmospheric model over western North America to characterize WWS and analyze snow ablation and their changes in a warmer climate. We find that days with ablation during WWS represent a small fraction of winter days (0.6 days), however, 49% of total winter ablation (33.4 mm/DJF) occurs during WWS. Greater extreme ablation rates (99th percentile) occur 18% more frequently during WWS than during non‐WWS days. Ablation rates during WWS in humid regions are larger (9 mm d−1) than in dry regions (7 mm d−1) in a warmer climate, which can be explained by differences in the energy balance and the snowpack's cold content. We find that warmer (0.8°C), longer (1.8 days) and more frequent (3.7 more events) WWS increase total winter ablation (on average 109% or 18 mm/DJF) in a warmer climate. Winter melt during WWS in warm and humid places is expected to increase about 3 times more than in the cold and dry region. This study provides a comprehensive description of WWS and their impact on snowpack dynamics, which is relevant to reservoir operations and water security. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3f90850febc845a3a065604c3e290fc3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-05-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water Resources Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-3f90850febc845a3a065604c3e290fc32025-08-20T03:30:56ZengWileyWater Resources Research0043-13971944-79732024-05-01605n/an/a10.1029/2023WR034492The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North AmericaLucia Scaff0Sebastian A. Krogh1Keith Musselman2Adrian Harpold3Yanping Li4Mario Lillo‐Saavedra5Ricardo Oyarzún6Roy Rasmussen7Department of Geophysics Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences University of Concepcion Concepción ChileDepartment of Water Resources Faculty of Agricultural Engineering University of Concepcion Chillán ChileInstitute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder Boulder CO USADepartment of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno NV USAThe University of Western Ontario London ON CanadaWater Research Center for Agriculture and Mining (CRHIAM) University of Concepcion Chillán ChileWater Research Center for Agriculture and Mining (CRHIAM) University of Concepcion Chillán ChileNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USAAbstract An increase in winter air temperature can amplify snowmelt and sublimation in mountain regions with implications to water resources and ecological systems. Winter Warm Spells (WWS) are defined as a winter period (December to February, DJF) of at least 3 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature anomaly above the 90th percentile (using a moving‐average of 15 days between 2001 and 2013). We calculate WWS for every 4‐km grid cell within an atmospheric model over western North America to characterize WWS and analyze snow ablation and their changes in a warmer climate. We find that days with ablation during WWS represent a small fraction of winter days (0.6 days), however, 49% of total winter ablation (33.4 mm/DJF) occurs during WWS. Greater extreme ablation rates (99th percentile) occur 18% more frequently during WWS than during non‐WWS days. Ablation rates during WWS in humid regions are larger (9 mm d−1) than in dry regions (7 mm d−1) in a warmer climate, which can be explained by differences in the energy balance and the snowpack's cold content. We find that warmer (0.8°C), longer (1.8 days) and more frequent (3.7 more events) WWS increase total winter ablation (on average 109% or 18 mm/DJF) in a warmer climate. Winter melt during WWS in warm and humid places is expected to increase about 3 times more than in the cold and dry region. This study provides a comprehensive description of WWS and their impact on snowpack dynamics, which is relevant to reservoir operations and water security.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034492Winter Warm Spellssnowapack ablationconvection‐permitting simulationWestern North American mountainswarmer climate |
| spellingShingle | Lucia Scaff Sebastian A. Krogh Keith Musselman Adrian Harpold Yanping Li Mario Lillo‐Saavedra Ricardo Oyarzún Roy Rasmussen The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America Water Resources Research Winter Warm Spells snowapack ablation convection‐permitting simulation Western North American mountains warmer climate |
| title | The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America |
| title_full | The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America |
| title_fullStr | The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America |
| title_short | The Impacts of Changing Winter Warm Spells on Snow Ablation Over Western North America |
| title_sort | impacts of changing winter warm spells on snow ablation over western north america |
| topic | Winter Warm Spells snowapack ablation convection‐permitting simulation Western North American mountains warmer climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034492 |
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