The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea
Increasing CO2 emissions and consequently, air temperature causes climate anomalies which affects all the aspects of human life. The purpose of this study was to assess the temperature changes and also to predict the extreme temperatures in Gilan and Mazandaran Provinces. To do this, the SDSM statis...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Kharazmi University
2018-03-01
|
| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2769-en.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1832575780797808640 |
|---|---|
| author | Mostafa Karimi Fatemeh Sotoudeh Somayeh Rafati |
| author_facet | Mostafa Karimi Fatemeh Sotoudeh Somayeh Rafati |
| author_sort | Mostafa Karimi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing CO2 emissions and consequently, air temperature causes climate anomalies which affects all the aspects of human life. The purpose of this study was to assess the temperature changes and also to predict the extreme temperatures in Gilan and Mazandaran Provinces. To do this, the SDSM statistical and dynamical model was used. As well, it was applied the Mann-Kendal graphical and statistical technique to analyze the temperature changes and its trend. In this regard, the daily temperature was obtained from Rasht, Ramsar and Babolsar synoptic stations during 1961 – 2010, and also the general circulation models data of HadCM3 and NCEP were collected from related databases. The results revealed a significant positive trend in monthly and annual minimum and maximum temperature in all three stations in the first (1961-2010) and third (1961-2040) periods. There is not a significant trend in extreme temperatures in Ramsar and maximum temperature in Rasht in the second period (2011-2040). The Mann-Kendal graphical test was used for the yearly extreme temperatures in all periods. The results showed that it was occurred both increasing trend and suddenly changes or shifts at the 95% confidence level in all stations. It is occurred the highest of changes in monthly and annual of the minimum temperature at forecasted period (2011-2040). It was predicted extreme temperature to increase about 0.1 to 1.7° C. The short time oscillations and significant positive trend occurred in both the maximum and minimum temperature shows the temperature increase and climate changes in the future. Thus it is obvious the decrease in temperature difference in warm and cold seasons. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3f74e7bd1b49403a96f3b910b4644003 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2018-03-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-3f74e7bd1b49403a96f3b910b46440032025-01-31T17:24:18ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382018-03-0118487993The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian SeaMostafa Karimi0Fatemeh Sotoudeh1Somayeh Rafati2 Unoversity of Tehran Unoversity of Kharazmi , University of Sayyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi Increasing CO2 emissions and consequently, air temperature causes climate anomalies which affects all the aspects of human life. The purpose of this study was to assess the temperature changes and also to predict the extreme temperatures in Gilan and Mazandaran Provinces. To do this, the SDSM statistical and dynamical model was used. As well, it was applied the Mann-Kendal graphical and statistical technique to analyze the temperature changes and its trend. In this regard, the daily temperature was obtained from Rasht, Ramsar and Babolsar synoptic stations during 1961 – 2010, and also the general circulation models data of HadCM3 and NCEP were collected from related databases. The results revealed a significant positive trend in monthly and annual minimum and maximum temperature in all three stations in the first (1961-2010) and third (1961-2040) periods. There is not a significant trend in extreme temperatures in Ramsar and maximum temperature in Rasht in the second period (2011-2040). The Mann-Kendal graphical test was used for the yearly extreme temperatures in all periods. The results showed that it was occurred both increasing trend and suddenly changes or shifts at the 95% confidence level in all stations. It is occurred the highest of changes in monthly and annual of the minimum temperature at forecasted period (2011-2040). It was predicted extreme temperature to increase about 0.1 to 1.7° C. The short time oscillations and significant positive trend occurred in both the maximum and minimum temperature shows the temperature increase and climate changes in the future. Thus it is obvious the decrease in temperature difference in warm and cold seasons.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2769-en.pdftrend analysisforecastingmodelingclimate changeextreme temperature |
| spellingShingle | Mostafa Karimi Fatemeh Sotoudeh Somayeh Rafati The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی trend analysis forecasting modeling climate change extreme temperature |
| title | The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea |
| title_full | The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea |
| title_fullStr | The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea |
| title_short | The Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Extreme Temperature Parameters in southern part of the Caspian Sea |
| title_sort | trend analysis and forecasting of extreme temperature parameters in southern part of the caspian sea |
| topic | trend analysis forecasting modeling climate change extreme temperature |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2769-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mostafakarimi thetrendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea AT fatemehsotoudeh thetrendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea AT somayehrafati thetrendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea AT mostafakarimi trendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea AT fatemehsotoudeh trendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea AT somayehrafati trendanalysisandforecastingofextremetemperatureparametersinsouthernpartofthecaspiansea |