Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean
The performance of the operational extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department in the nil, low, moderate and high categories of probability of cyclogenesis has been evaluated based on 868 forecasts issued every Thursday for week 1 and week 2 for the Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603225000062 |
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| author | M. Sharma M. Mohapatra P. Suneetha |
| author_facet | M. Sharma M. Mohapatra P. Suneetha |
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| description | The performance of the operational extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department in the nil, low, moderate and high categories of probability of cyclogenesis has been evaluated based on 868 forecasts issued every Thursday for week 1 and week 2 for the Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Indian Ocean (NIO) as a whole during April 2018 to December 2023. The forecast is biased towards under-warning for low and moderate categories over the NIO, BoB & AS and towards over-warning for high categories over NIO and BoB in week 1. It is biased towards over-warning for moderate & high categories and under-warning for low category forecast over NIO and BoB for week 2. It is biased towards under-warning for low and high categories and over-warning for moderate category forecasts over AS in week 2. The Brier score (Brier skill score) for week 1 and week 2 are 0.051 (48.7 %) and 0.087 (8.6 %) over NIO respectively.The association of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby waves (ERW) and Kelvin waves (KW) with genesis increases and that of low-frequency background waves (LW) and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) decreases with an increase in the intensity of storms from depression to very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS). About 100 %, 92 %, 92 %, 92 % and 100 % of the cases of the genesis of VSCS & above category storms over the NIO are associated with stronger westerlies to the south, stronger easterlies to the north, convective phase of MJO, ERW and KW over the region of genesis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3f66de1ade094e9b802ec769b0e05ea9 |
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| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
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| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj-art-3f66de1ade094e9b802ec769b0e05ea92025-08-20T02:16:29ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322025-03-011418210310.1016/j.tcrr.2025.02.006Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian OceanM. Sharma0M. Mohapatra1P. Suneetha2India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, IndiaIndia Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India; Corresponding author. Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003, India.Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, 530003, IndiaThe performance of the operational extended range forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department in the nil, low, moderate and high categories of probability of cyclogenesis has been evaluated based on 868 forecasts issued every Thursday for week 1 and week 2 for the Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and north Indian Ocean (NIO) as a whole during April 2018 to December 2023. The forecast is biased towards under-warning for low and moderate categories over the NIO, BoB & AS and towards over-warning for high categories over NIO and BoB in week 1. It is biased towards over-warning for moderate & high categories and under-warning for low category forecast over NIO and BoB for week 2. It is biased towards under-warning for low and high categories and over-warning for moderate category forecasts over AS in week 2. The Brier score (Brier skill score) for week 1 and week 2 are 0.051 (48.7 %) and 0.087 (8.6 %) over NIO respectively.The association of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), equatorial Rossby waves (ERW) and Kelvin waves (KW) with genesis increases and that of low-frequency background waves (LW) and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) decreases with an increase in the intensity of storms from depression to very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS). About 100 %, 92 %, 92 %, 92 % and 100 % of the cases of the genesis of VSCS & above category storms over the NIO are associated with stronger westerlies to the south, stronger easterlies to the north, convective phase of MJO, ERW and KW over the region of genesis.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603225000062CyclogenesisTropical cycloneBay of BengalArabian seanorth Indian OceanExtended range forecast |
| spellingShingle | M. Sharma M. Mohapatra P. Suneetha Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Research and Review Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone Bay of Bengal Arabian sea north Indian Ocean Extended range forecast |
| title | Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean |
| title_full | Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean |
| title_short | Evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean |
| title_sort | evaluation of operational extended range forecast of cyclogenesis over the north indian ocean |
| topic | Cyclogenesis Tropical cyclone Bay of Bengal Arabian sea north Indian Ocean Extended range forecast |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603225000062 |
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