Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure
Abstract The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked waterbody, providing habitat for hundreds of endemic and migratory species, along with ecosystem services that sustain millions of people. Global warming is projected to drive declines in water levels of up to 21 m by 2100. Using geospatial...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5 |
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| author | Rebecca Court Matteo Lattuada Nataliya Shumeyko Mirgaliy Baimukanov Tariyel Eybatov Altynay Kaidarova Elchin V. Mamedov Eldar Rustamov Aselle Tasmagambetova Matthias Prange Thomas Wilke Christopher Hassall Simon J. Goodman |
| author_facet | Rebecca Court Matteo Lattuada Nataliya Shumeyko Mirgaliy Baimukanov Tariyel Eybatov Altynay Kaidarova Elchin V. Mamedov Eldar Rustamov Aselle Tasmagambetova Matthias Prange Thomas Wilke Christopher Hassall Simon J. Goodman |
| author_sort | Rebecca Court |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked waterbody, providing habitat for hundreds of endemic and migratory species, along with ecosystem services that sustain millions of people. Global warming is projected to drive declines in water levels of up to 21 m by 2100. Using geospatial analyses, we assessed the impact of sea level decline on habitats, protected areas, and human infrastructure. We show that a water level decline of just 5–10 m will critically disrupt key ecosystems (including habitats for endemic Caspian seals and sturgeon), reduce existing marine protected area coverage by up to 94%, and render billions of dollars of civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete. Replacing traditional static conservation planning with a pre-emptive, dynamic approach that allows protected areas to track shifting ecosystems, is recommended to help endemic Caspian Sea biodiversity adapt to these changes, and to avoid conflicts with mitigation efforts directed at protecting human activities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3f3de0d04fec4afcb9102e2d0d2c8439 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-3f3de0d04fec4afcb9102e2d0d2c84392025-08-20T02:17:04ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-04-016111210.1038/s43247-025-02212-5Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructureRebecca Court0Matteo Lattuada1Nataliya Shumeyko2Mirgaliy Baimukanov3Tariyel Eybatov4Altynay Kaidarova5Elchin V. Mamedov6Eldar Rustamov7Aselle Tasmagambetova8Matthias Prange9Thomas Wilke10Christopher Hassall11Simon J. Goodman12School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of LeedsLandscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis, Institute of Geoecology, Technische Universität BraunschweigKaspika Caspian Seals Conservation AgencyInstitute of Hydrobiology & EcologyMuseum of Natural HistoryCentral Asian Institute of Ecological ResearchFisheries and Aquaculture Research Centre, Biodiversity Protection Service, Ministry of Ecology and Natural ResourcesRamsar Regional Initiative of Central Asia (RRI-CA)Central Asian Institute of Ecological ResearchMARUM – Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of BremenInstitute of Ecology and Systematics, Justus Liebig University GiessenSchool of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of LeedsSchool of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of LeedsAbstract The Caspian Sea is the world’s largest landlocked waterbody, providing habitat for hundreds of endemic and migratory species, along with ecosystem services that sustain millions of people. Global warming is projected to drive declines in water levels of up to 21 m by 2100. Using geospatial analyses, we assessed the impact of sea level decline on habitats, protected areas, and human infrastructure. We show that a water level decline of just 5–10 m will critically disrupt key ecosystems (including habitats for endemic Caspian seals and sturgeon), reduce existing marine protected area coverage by up to 94%, and render billions of dollars of civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete. Replacing traditional static conservation planning with a pre-emptive, dynamic approach that allows protected areas to track shifting ecosystems, is recommended to help endemic Caspian Sea biodiversity adapt to these changes, and to avoid conflicts with mitigation efforts directed at protecting human activities.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5 |
| spellingShingle | Rebecca Court Matteo Lattuada Nataliya Shumeyko Mirgaliy Baimukanov Tariyel Eybatov Altynay Kaidarova Elchin V. Mamedov Eldar Rustamov Aselle Tasmagambetova Matthias Prange Thomas Wilke Christopher Hassall Simon J. Goodman Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure |
| title_full | Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure |
| title_fullStr | Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure |
| title_short | Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure |
| title_sort | rapid decline of caspian sea level threatens ecosystem integrity biodiversity protection and human infrastructure |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5 |
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