Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023
Abstract From 2021 to 2023, satellite records reveal that February Antarctic sea ice extent reached record lows in 2022 and 2023. Simultaneously, the Antarctic ice sheet experienced a transient mass gain and rebounded temporarily from a decadal decline since 2002. The reasons behind these dramatic c...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01066-0 |
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| author | Shaoyin Wang Jiping Liu Wenju Cai Dongxia Yang Tobias Kerzenmacher Suoyi Ding Xiao Cheng |
| author_facet | Shaoyin Wang Jiping Liu Wenju Cai Dongxia Yang Tobias Kerzenmacher Suoyi Ding Xiao Cheng |
| author_sort | Shaoyin Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract From 2021 to 2023, satellite records reveal that February Antarctic sea ice extent reached record lows in 2022 and 2023. Simultaneously, the Antarctic ice sheet experienced a transient mass gain and rebounded temporarily from a decadal decline since 2002. The reasons behind these dramatic changes are unknown. Here, we show that the triple-dip La Niña event during 2021–2023 (referred to as TD_LN2023) played a major role in these changes. Compared to a previous triple-dip La Niña event (1999–2001), the tropical-Antarctic teleconnections during TD_LN2023 were stronger. A more pronounced southward shift of the Ferrel Cell was identified as a key driver for the enhanced tropical-Antarctic teleconnections during TD_LN2023 against the background of intensified westerly winds and tropical expansion. The poleward increase, which facilitated poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport, contributed to the sea ice extent decline and the ice sheet mass growth. Additionally, this southward shift strengthened the Rossby wave train, which, sustained by enhanced stratosphere-troposphere coupling, amplified the Pacific-South American pattern, and further promoted regional sea ice decline. Finally, this southward shift, associated with the southward shift of the westerly jet, enhanced Ekman suction, bringing subsurface warm water to the surface and contributing to pan-Antarctic low sea ice. The physical processes outlined in the case study are further validated through empirical orthogonal function and regression analysis. Under global warming, multi-year La Niña events are projected to occur more frequently. The evolving tropical-Antarctic teleconnections in the context warrant close attention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3ec38378029a4262ba7ef703d340f6be |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-3ec38378029a4262ba7ef703d340f6be2025-08-20T02:15:07ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-05-018111310.1038/s41612-025-01066-0Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023Shaoyin Wang0Jiping Liu1Wenju Cai2Dongxia Yang3Tobias Kerzenmacher4Suoyi Ding5Xiao Cheng6School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)Key Laboratory of Comprehensive Observation of Polar Environment (Sun Yat-sen University)Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of ChinaAnalycia Pty. LtdKarlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Trace Gases and Remote Sensing (IMKASF)Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan UniversitySchool of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)Abstract From 2021 to 2023, satellite records reveal that February Antarctic sea ice extent reached record lows in 2022 and 2023. Simultaneously, the Antarctic ice sheet experienced a transient mass gain and rebounded temporarily from a decadal decline since 2002. The reasons behind these dramatic changes are unknown. Here, we show that the triple-dip La Niña event during 2021–2023 (referred to as TD_LN2023) played a major role in these changes. Compared to a previous triple-dip La Niña event (1999–2001), the tropical-Antarctic teleconnections during TD_LN2023 were stronger. A more pronounced southward shift of the Ferrel Cell was identified as a key driver for the enhanced tropical-Antarctic teleconnections during TD_LN2023 against the background of intensified westerly winds and tropical expansion. The poleward increase, which facilitated poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport, contributed to the sea ice extent decline and the ice sheet mass growth. Additionally, this southward shift strengthened the Rossby wave train, which, sustained by enhanced stratosphere-troposphere coupling, amplified the Pacific-South American pattern, and further promoted regional sea ice decline. Finally, this southward shift, associated with the southward shift of the westerly jet, enhanced Ekman suction, bringing subsurface warm water to the surface and contributing to pan-Antarctic low sea ice. The physical processes outlined in the case study are further validated through empirical orthogonal function and regression analysis. Under global warming, multi-year La Niña events are projected to occur more frequently. The evolving tropical-Antarctic teleconnections in the context warrant close attention.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01066-0 |
| spellingShingle | Shaoyin Wang Jiping Liu Wenju Cai Dongxia Yang Tobias Kerzenmacher Suoyi Ding Xiao Cheng Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 |
| title_full | Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 |
| title_fullStr | Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 |
| title_short | Strong impact of the rare three-year La Niña event on Antarctic surface climate changes in 2021–2023 |
| title_sort | strong impact of the rare three year la nina event on antarctic surface climate changes in 2021 2023 |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01066-0 |
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