Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan
Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerabl...
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2025-04-01
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| Series: | Advances in Climate Change Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000395 |
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| author | Muhammad Ramzan Peng Cui Daniya Ualiyeva Hamza Mukhtar Nazir Ahmed Bazai Muhammad Aslam Baig |
| author_facet | Muhammad Ramzan Peng Cui Daniya Ualiyeva Hamza Mukhtar Nazir Ahmed Bazai Muhammad Aslam Baig |
| author_sort | Muhammad Ramzan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Landslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990–2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (p < 0.05). In the warm season (April–October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar–Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar–Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6–6.5 °C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in a rise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3e8c2f35c29d41319ccbd50d6441ee35 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1674-9278 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
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| series | Advances in Climate Change Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-3e8c2f35c29d41319ccbd50d6441ee352025-08-20T01:59:14ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Advances in Climate Change Research1674-92782025-04-0116239740810.1016/j.accre.2025.02.004Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern PakistanMuhammad Ramzan0Peng Cui1Daniya Ualiyeva2Hamza Mukhtar3Nazir Ahmed Bazai4Muhammad Aslam Baig5State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Corresponding author.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China; China–Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)–Higher Education Commission (HEC), Islamabad 45320, Pakistan; Corresponding author. State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China.State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610299, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaLandslides, which are aggravated by climate change, greatly threaten mountainous regions like northern Pakistan. However, existing research lacks a complete, region-specific analysis of the climatic and environmental factors driving landslides across various climatic zones, specifically in vulnerable areas such as northern Pakistan. This study explores the N-15 Highway in northern Pakistan. This region is frequently impacted by landslides induced by extreme climatic events, including heavy rainfall and flooding, which usually lead to blockages along the route. We collected a complete landslide inventory using 455 satellite images from 1990 to 2023 and ground surveys. We also analysed the relationship between landslides and climate change over the period of 1990–2023, encompassing soil moisture, vegetation, precipitation, temperature and snow cover. Using meteorological data, we found that the frequency of landslides rose exponentially from 1990 to 2023 due to the impacts of climate change. Especially after 2005, substantial increases in precipitation, temperature and snowmelt led to a more significant rise in landslide occurrences (p < 0.05). In the warm season (April–October), 84.1% of the landslides occurred, which were mainly due to precipitation and snowmelt. Balakot, Babusar–Naran and Chilas were the primary areas along the highway, each with distinct landslide mechanisms. In the Balakot region, which is characterised by sub-tropical conditions, high precipitation played the leading role in landslide occurrences. Landslides at Babusar–Naran, which is known for Alpine conditions, were mostly driven by precipitation, soil moisture fluctuations and snowmelt dynamics. Geological reasons and high temperatures influenced the Chilas region, which is characterised by semi-arid conditions. The EC-Earth3 model from CMIP6 predicts a 1.6–6.5 °C warming and a 35% rise in precipitation by 2100, with more extreme variations under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These changes are likely to result in a rise in the frequency of landslides. We suggest improving ground observation networks and utilising multiple datasets to better understand the relationship between landslides and climatic variables, which enables highly accurate risk assessment and management in high-mountain areas under the warming climate.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000395Climate changeLandslidesDebris flowPakistanHimalayasFuture climate scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Muhammad Ramzan Peng Cui Daniya Ualiyeva Hamza Mukhtar Nazir Ahmed Bazai Muhammad Aslam Baig Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan Advances in Climate Change Research Climate change Landslides Debris flow Pakistan Himalayas Future climate scenarios |
| title | Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan |
| title_full | Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan |
| title_short | Impact of climate change on landslides along N-15 Highway, northern Pakistan |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on landslides along n 15 highway northern pakistan |
| topic | Climate change Landslides Debris flow Pakistan Himalayas Future climate scenarios |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927825000395 |
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