Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040
Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) has become a significant global concern, presenting formidable challenges to healthcare systems and leading to substantial healthcare expenses. This study examines the projected prevalence and trends of CRC worldwide, encompassing 21 regions and 195 nation...
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Springer
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00348-3 |
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| author | Meysam Olfatifar Fariba Rafiei Amir Sadeghi Elnaz Ataei Mohammad Amin Habibi Mehdi Pezeshgi Modarres Zohreh Ghalavand Hamidreza Houri |
| author_facet | Meysam Olfatifar Fariba Rafiei Amir Sadeghi Elnaz Ataei Mohammad Amin Habibi Mehdi Pezeshgi Modarres Zohreh Ghalavand Hamidreza Houri |
| author_sort | Meysam Olfatifar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) has become a significant global concern, presenting formidable challenges to healthcare systems and leading to substantial healthcare expenses. This study examines the projected prevalence and trends of CRC worldwide, encompassing 21 regions and 195 nations. Methods We employed an illness-death model (IDM) in order to forecast the anticipated prevalence of CRC by the year 2040. To accomplish this, we utilized data retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool spanning from 1990 to 2021. The primary objective of this study is to furnish sex-specific estimations encompassing various geographical regions. Results By 2040, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of CRC among the total population is projected to rise, reaching 145.82 per 100,000, which reflects an increase of 8.15%. East Asia is forecasted to have the highest ASPR at 330.17 per 100,000, representing a substantial rise of 94.81%. Notably, the most rapid percentage increase is projected in Andean Latin America, with an anticipated rise of 106.2%. In contrast, many countries, particularly in developed nations, are expected to see a decline in ASPR during this period. The United Arab Emirates is projected to experience the most significant decrease in ASPR, at -86.51%, while Mauritius is anticipated to have the largest increase in CRC prevalence rate, at 226.26%. Globally and regionally, the ASPR among males is expected to remain higher than that among females over the next 21 years. Conclusions The global prevalence of CRC is increasing, particularly in developing countries, while developed countries are anticipated to observe a declining trend. This highlights the significance of appropriately allocating resources and implementing effective preventive measures, especially in developing nations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3e6d9e712d6a4476b7b1151011764f2f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2210-6014 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-3e6d9e712d6a4476b7b1151011764f2f2025-01-26T12:13:12ZengSpringerJournal of Epidemiology and Global Health2210-60142025-01-0115111110.1007/s44197-025-00348-3Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040Meysam Olfatifar0Fariba Rafiei1Amir Sadeghi2Elnaz Ataei3Mohammad Amin Habibi4Mehdi Pezeshgi Modarres5Zohreh Ghalavand6Hamidreza Houri7Gastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center, Qom University of Medical SciencesFoodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesGastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesClinical Research Development Center, Shahid Modarres Educational Hospital, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesClinical Research Development Center, Qom University of Medical SciencesGastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center, Qom University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Microbiology, School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesFoodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesAbstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) has become a significant global concern, presenting formidable challenges to healthcare systems and leading to substantial healthcare expenses. This study examines the projected prevalence and trends of CRC worldwide, encompassing 21 regions and 195 nations. Methods We employed an illness-death model (IDM) in order to forecast the anticipated prevalence of CRC by the year 2040. To accomplish this, we utilized data retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool spanning from 1990 to 2021. The primary objective of this study is to furnish sex-specific estimations encompassing various geographical regions. Results By 2040, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of CRC among the total population is projected to rise, reaching 145.82 per 100,000, which reflects an increase of 8.15%. East Asia is forecasted to have the highest ASPR at 330.17 per 100,000, representing a substantial rise of 94.81%. Notably, the most rapid percentage increase is projected in Andean Latin America, with an anticipated rise of 106.2%. In contrast, many countries, particularly in developed nations, are expected to see a decline in ASPR during this period. The United Arab Emirates is projected to experience the most significant decrease in ASPR, at -86.51%, while Mauritius is anticipated to have the largest increase in CRC prevalence rate, at 226.26%. Globally and regionally, the ASPR among males is expected to remain higher than that among females over the next 21 years. Conclusions The global prevalence of CRC is increasing, particularly in developing countries, while developed countries are anticipated to observe a declining trend. This highlights the significance of appropriately allocating resources and implementing effective preventive measures, especially in developing nations.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00348-3Age-standardized prevalenceCancer epidemiologyColorectal cancerIllness-death model |
| spellingShingle | Meysam Olfatifar Fariba Rafiei Amir Sadeghi Elnaz Ataei Mohammad Amin Habibi Mehdi Pezeshgi Modarres Zohreh Ghalavand Hamidreza Houri Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Age-standardized prevalence Cancer epidemiology Colorectal cancer Illness-death model |
| title | Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| title_full | Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| title_short | Assessing the Colorectal Cancer Landscape: A Comprehensive Exploration of Future Trends in 216 Countries and Territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| title_sort | assessing the colorectal cancer landscape a comprehensive exploration of future trends in 216 countries and territories from 2021 to 2040 |
| topic | Age-standardized prevalence Cancer epidemiology Colorectal cancer Illness-death model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44197-025-00348-3 |
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