Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador
The Andean region of Ecuador has considerable untapped wind potential, especially at high altitudes where wind characteristics such as speed and constancy are more favorable. In this context, the objective of this study is to use eight numerical methods to estimate the shape and scale parameters of...
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Results in Engineering |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025021255 |
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| author | Natalia Alexandra Pérez Londo Darwin Saúl Lema Londo Rosa Ormaza Hugo Fabián Londo Narcisa Sánchez Salcán Diana Katherine Campoverde-Santos Dalinda Quingatuña Julio Coello-Cabezas |
| author_facet | Natalia Alexandra Pérez Londo Darwin Saúl Lema Londo Rosa Ormaza Hugo Fabián Londo Narcisa Sánchez Salcán Diana Katherine Campoverde-Santos Dalinda Quingatuña Julio Coello-Cabezas |
| author_sort | Natalia Alexandra Pérez Londo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Andean region of Ecuador has considerable untapped wind potential, especially at high altitudes where wind characteristics such as speed and constancy are more favorable. In this context, the objective of this study is to use eight numerical methods to estimate the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution to determine the wind potential at two sites in the Andean region, located above 4300 m ASL. It also aims to determine whether similar altitudes in relatively close locations offer similar conditions for wind energy production. It also shows how wind power density changes over time. Wind speed data from a three-year period (2018–2020) were analyzed. The methods applied are maximum likelihood, the method of moments, the power density method, the empirical Lysen method, the empirical Justus method, the energy pattern factor method, the alternative maximum likelihood method, and the standard deviation method. To evaluate the accuracy of these methods, the mean square error, the root mean square error, the mean absolute error, the coefficient of determination, and the chi-square test were used. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that the empirical Lysen method and the maximum likelihood method were the most accurate in determining the Weibull parameters at the study sites. With a most probable velocity of 8.28 m/s and a power density categorized as excellent, a wind power generation project could be developed at the Pinanquil site. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the most accurate method is not analogous across sites due to differences in wind characteristics. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3e065b8bc74943d49c2ceacd02aa1a99 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2590-1230 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-3e065b8bc74943d49c2ceacd02aa1a992025-08-20T03:33:38ZengElsevierResults in Engineering2590-12302025-09-012710605310.1016/j.rineng.2025.106053Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of EcuadorNatalia Alexandra Pérez Londo0Darwin Saúl Lema Londo1Rosa Ormaza Hugo2Fabián Londo3Narcisa Sánchez Salcán4Diana Katherine Campoverde-Santos5Dalinda Quingatuña6Julio Coello-Cabezas7Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba-Ecuador 060104Unidad Educativa Juan León Mera “La Salle”, Ambato-Ecuador 180206Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo, Riobamba-Ecuador 060108; Corresponding author.Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo, Riobamba-Ecuador 060104Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo, Riobamba-Ecuador 060108Ciencia Escrita – Consultora Académica, Riobamba- Ecuador 060104Ciencia Escrita – Consultora Académica, Riobamba- Ecuador 060104Ciencia Escrita – Consultora Académica, Riobamba- Ecuador 060104The Andean region of Ecuador has considerable untapped wind potential, especially at high altitudes where wind characteristics such as speed and constancy are more favorable. In this context, the objective of this study is to use eight numerical methods to estimate the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution to determine the wind potential at two sites in the Andean region, located above 4300 m ASL. It also aims to determine whether similar altitudes in relatively close locations offer similar conditions for wind energy production. It also shows how wind power density changes over time. Wind speed data from a three-year period (2018–2020) were analyzed. The methods applied are maximum likelihood, the method of moments, the power density method, the empirical Lysen method, the empirical Justus method, the energy pattern factor method, the alternative maximum likelihood method, and the standard deviation method. To evaluate the accuracy of these methods, the mean square error, the root mean square error, the mean absolute error, the coefficient of determination, and the chi-square test were used. The results of the statistical analysis indicate that the empirical Lysen method and the maximum likelihood method were the most accurate in determining the Weibull parameters at the study sites. With a most probable velocity of 8.28 m/s and a power density categorized as excellent, a wind power generation project could be developed at the Pinanquil site. Furthermore, it is emphasized that the most accurate method is not analogous across sites due to differences in wind characteristics.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025021255Wind energyWeibull distributionStatistical indicatorEstimation methodsAndean region |
| spellingShingle | Natalia Alexandra Pérez Londo Darwin Saúl Lema Londo Rosa Ormaza Hugo Fabián Londo Narcisa Sánchez Salcán Diana Katherine Campoverde-Santos Dalinda Quingatuña Julio Coello-Cabezas Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador Results in Engineering Wind energy Weibull distribution Statistical indicator Estimation methods Andean region |
| title | Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador |
| title_full | Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador |
| title_short | Estimation of Weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the Andean region of Ecuador |
| title_sort | estimation of weibull distribution parameters to assess the wind energy potential of high altitude sites in the andean region of ecuador |
| topic | Wind energy Weibull distribution Statistical indicator Estimation methods Andean region |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123025021255 |
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