Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones
Using non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for areal sources can lead to large increases in calculation time compared to PSHA based on ergodic GMMs due to the large number of branches on the logic tree required to capture the spatial correlation of...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-02-01
|
| Series: | Applied Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/5/2454 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850228260265263104 |
|---|---|
| author | Maxime Lacour Norman Abrahamson |
| author_facet | Maxime Lacour Norman Abrahamson |
| author_sort | Maxime Lacour |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for areal sources can lead to large increases in calculation time compared to PSHA based on ergodic GMMs due to the large number of branches on the logic tree required to capture the spatial correlation of the non-ergodic terms. To reduce the computation time, a Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion with a Taylor series approximation to capture the effects of the spatial correlation effects of the non-ergodic terms is used for the hazard calculations. With these approximate analytical methods, the calculation time for a logic tree with 100 branches for the non-ergodic terms can be reduced by a factor of 50 to 100. Using the proposed analytical approximations, the loss of accuracy of the mean hazard and the epistemic fractiles of the hazard is about 2%. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3ddb9735a9be41fcb161fc1afd7debcb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2076-3417 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-3ddb9735a9be41fcb161fc1afd7debcb2025-08-20T02:04:34ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-02-01155245410.3390/app15052454Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source ZonesMaxime Lacour0Norman Abrahamson1Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USADepartment of Civil Engineering, University of California, 760 Davis Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USAUsing non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for areal sources can lead to large increases in calculation time compared to PSHA based on ergodic GMMs due to the large number of branches on the logic tree required to capture the spatial correlation of the non-ergodic terms. To reduce the computation time, a Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansion with a Taylor series approximation to capture the effects of the spatial correlation effects of the non-ergodic terms is used for the hazard calculations. With these approximate analytical methods, the calculation time for a logic tree with 100 branches for the non-ergodic terms can be reduced by a factor of 50 to 100. Using the proposed analytical approximations, the loss of accuracy of the mean hazard and the epistemic fractiles of the hazard is about 2%.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/5/2454PSHAnon-ergodic GMMslogic trees |
| spellingShingle | Maxime Lacour Norman Abrahamson Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones Applied Sciences PSHA non-ergodic GMMs logic trees |
| title | Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones |
| title_full | Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones |
| title_fullStr | Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones |
| title_short | Reducing Calculation Times for Seismic Hazard Using Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models for Areal Source Zones |
| title_sort | reducing calculation times for seismic hazard using non ergodic ground motion models for areal source zones |
| topic | PSHA non-ergodic GMMs logic trees |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/5/2454 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maximelacour reducingcalculationtimesforseismichazardusingnonergodicgroundmotionmodelsforarealsourcezones AT normanabrahamson reducingcalculationtimesforseismichazardusingnonergodicgroundmotionmodelsforarealsourcezones |