Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice

Rice is a staple food in Indonesia. Although Indonesia produces a large amount of rice, it cannot meet domestic rice needs. The unpredictable domestic rice supply prompted the government to import rice. Moreover, rice imports are one of the efforts to provide rice stock. On the other hand, importing...

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Main Authors: Novianti Trisita, Agustina Fitri, Indriartiningtias Retno
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: EDP Sciences 2024-01-01
Series:BIO Web of Conferences
Online Access:https://www.bio-conferences.org/articles/bioconf/pdf/2024/65/bioconf_btmic2024_01036.pdf
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author Novianti Trisita
Agustina Fitri
Indriartiningtias Retno
author_facet Novianti Trisita
Agustina Fitri
Indriartiningtias Retno
author_sort Novianti Trisita
collection DOAJ
description Rice is a staple food in Indonesia. Although Indonesia produces a large amount of rice, it cannot meet domestic rice needs. The unpredictable domestic rice supply prompted the government to import rice. Moreover, rice imports are one of the efforts to provide rice stock. On the other hand, importing rice can decrease domestic rice prices because it creates a market competitor. This study uses backpropagation artificial neural networks to develop a prediction system for rice supply crises in Indonesia based on models similar to currency crisis prediction systems. The study identified key variables and indicators for predicting rice supply crises, including rice production, consumption, prices, land area, and population. Data from January 2012 to December 2022 was analyzed. The optimal neural network architecture achieved a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.209192. The analysis revealed that rice consumption, land area, and total population are the most strongly correlated indicators of a rice commodity crisis
format Article
id doaj-art-3d67248bf611439ab7fd2d3ea74668ff
institution OA Journals
issn 2117-4458
language English
publishDate 2024-01-01
publisher EDP Sciences
record_format Article
series BIO Web of Conferences
spelling doaj-art-3d67248bf611439ab7fd2d3ea74668ff2025-08-20T02:19:38ZengEDP SciencesBIO Web of Conferences2117-44582024-01-011460103610.1051/bioconf/202414601036bioconf_btmic2024_01036Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported riceNovianti Trisita0Agustina Fitri1Indriartiningtias Retno2Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura, Jl. Raya TelangIndustrial Engineering Department, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura, Jl. Raya TelangIndustrial Engineering Department, Universitas Trunojoyo Madura, Jl. Raya TelangRice is a staple food in Indonesia. Although Indonesia produces a large amount of rice, it cannot meet domestic rice needs. The unpredictable domestic rice supply prompted the government to import rice. Moreover, rice imports are one of the efforts to provide rice stock. On the other hand, importing rice can decrease domestic rice prices because it creates a market competitor. This study uses backpropagation artificial neural networks to develop a prediction system for rice supply crises in Indonesia based on models similar to currency crisis prediction systems. The study identified key variables and indicators for predicting rice supply crises, including rice production, consumption, prices, land area, and population. Data from January 2012 to December 2022 was analyzed. The optimal neural network architecture achieved a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.209192. The analysis revealed that rice consumption, land area, and total population are the most strongly correlated indicators of a rice commodity crisishttps://www.bio-conferences.org/articles/bioconf/pdf/2024/65/bioconf_btmic2024_01036.pdf
spellingShingle Novianti Trisita
Agustina Fitri
Indriartiningtias Retno
Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
BIO Web of Conferences
title Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
title_full Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
title_fullStr Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
title_full_unstemmed Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
title_short Early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
title_sort early warning system modeling for rice supply using backpropagation artificial neural network to manage imported rice
url https://www.bio-conferences.org/articles/bioconf/pdf/2024/65/bioconf_btmic2024_01036.pdf
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AT indriartiningtiasretno earlywarningsystemmodelingforricesupplyusingbackpropagationartificialneuralnetworktomanageimportedrice