Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted most countries in the world. Analyzing COVID-19 data from these countries together is a prominent challenge. Under the sponsorship of NSF REU, this paper describes our experience with a ten-week project that aims to guide an REU scholar to develop a p...

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Main Authors: Yu Liang, Dalei Wu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: International Institute of Informatics and Cybernetics 2022-10-01
Series:Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics
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Online Access:http://www.iiisci.org/Journal/PDV/sci/pdfs/ZA280UJ22.pdf
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author Yu Liang
Dalei Wu
author_facet Yu Liang
Dalei Wu
author_sort Yu Liang
collection DOAJ
description The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted most countries in the world. Analyzing COVID-19 data from these countries together is a prominent challenge. Under the sponsorship of NSF REU, this paper describes our experience with a ten-week project that aims to guide an REU scholar to develop a physics-guided graph attention network to predict the global COVID- 19 Pandemics. We mainly presented the preparation, implementation, and dissemination of the addressed project. The COVID-19 situation in a country could be dramatically different from that of others, which suggests that COVID-19 pandemic data are generated based on different mechanisms, making COVID-19 data in different countries follow different probability distributions. Learning more than one hundred underlying probability distributions for countries in the world from large scale COVID- 19 data is beyond a single machine learning model. To address this challenge, we proposed two team-learning frameworks for predicting the COVID-19 pandemic trends: peer learning and layered ensemble learning framework. This addressed framework assigns an adaptive physics-guided graph attention network (GAT) to each learning agent. All the learning agents are fabricated in a hierarchical architecture, which enables agents to collaborate with each other in peer-to-peer and cross-layer way. This layered architecture shares the burden of large-scale data processing on machine learning models of all units. Experiments are run to verify the effectiveness of our approaches. The results indicate the proposed ensemble outperforms baseline methods. Besides being documented on GitHub, this work has resulted in two journal papers.
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spelling doaj-art-3d28c544c96a4a47a44abbdb435be7082025-08-20T02:20:16ZengInternational Institute of Informatics and CyberneticsJournal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics1690-45242022-10-01205148159Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 PredictionYu LiangDalei WuThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted most countries in the world. Analyzing COVID-19 data from these countries together is a prominent challenge. Under the sponsorship of NSF REU, this paper describes our experience with a ten-week project that aims to guide an REU scholar to develop a physics-guided graph attention network to predict the global COVID- 19 Pandemics. We mainly presented the preparation, implementation, and dissemination of the addressed project. The COVID-19 situation in a country could be dramatically different from that of others, which suggests that COVID-19 pandemic data are generated based on different mechanisms, making COVID-19 data in different countries follow different probability distributions. Learning more than one hundred underlying probability distributions for countries in the world from large scale COVID- 19 data is beyond a single machine learning model. To address this challenge, we proposed two team-learning frameworks for predicting the COVID-19 pandemic trends: peer learning and layered ensemble learning framework. This addressed framework assigns an adaptive physics-guided graph attention network (GAT) to each learning agent. All the learning agents are fabricated in a hierarchical architecture, which enables agents to collaborate with each other in peer-to-peer and cross-layer way. This layered architecture shares the burden of large-scale data processing on machine learning models of all units. Experiments are run to verify the effectiveness of our approaches. The results indicate the proposed ensemble outperforms baseline methods. Besides being documented on GitHub, this work has resulted in two journal papers.http://www.iiisci.org/Journal/PDV/sci/pdfs/ZA280UJ22.pdf physics-guided learninggraph attention networklayered ensemble learningcovid-19
spellingShingle Yu Liang
Dalei Wu
Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
Journal of Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics
physics-guided learning
graph attention network
layered ensemble learning
covid-19
title Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
title_full Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
title_fullStr Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
title_full_unstemmed Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
title_short Undergraduate Research on Physics-Informed Graph Attention Networks for COVID-19 Prediction
title_sort undergraduate research on physics informed graph attention networks for covid 19 prediction
topic physics-guided learning
graph attention network
layered ensemble learning
covid-19
url http://www.iiisci.org/Journal/PDV/sci/pdfs/ZA280UJ22.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT yuliang undergraduateresearchonphysicsinformedgraphattentionnetworksforcovid19prediction
AT daleiwu undergraduateresearchonphysicsinformedgraphattentionnetworksforcovid19prediction