Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss
Abstract Ice loss from Antarctica’s vast freshwater reservoir could threaten coastal communities and the global economy if the ice volume decreases by just a few percent. Observed changes in mass balance are limited to ~40 years, and are difficult to interpret in the context of an ice sheet with re...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-05-01
|
| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850231068245884928 |
|---|---|
| author | David M. Chandler Petra M. Langebroek Ronja Reese Torsten Albrecht Julius Garbe Ricarda Winkelmann |
| author_facet | David M. Chandler Petra M. Langebroek Ronja Reese Torsten Albrecht Julius Garbe Ricarda Winkelmann |
| author_sort | David M. Chandler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Ice loss from Antarctica’s vast freshwater reservoir could threaten coastal communities and the global economy if the ice volume decreases by just a few percent. Observed changes in mass balance are limited to ~40 years, and are difficult to interpret in the context of an ice sheet with response time scales reaching centuries to millennia. To gain a much longer-term perspective, here we combine transient and equilibrium Parallel Ice Sheet Model simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial-interglacial warming and cooling cycles over the last 800,000 years. We find hysteresis that is caused by the long response time and by crossing of tipping points. Notably, West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse contributes over 4 m sea-level rise in equilibrium ice sheet states with little (0.25 °C) or even no ocean warming above present. Therefore, today we are likely already at (or almost at) an overshoot scenario, supporting recent studies warning of substantial irreversible ice loss with little or no further climate warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3ce91cdcd769491d983c8bd5b2e20e60 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-3ce91cdcd769491d983c8bd5b2e20e602025-08-20T02:03:39ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-05-016111510.1038/s43247-025-02366-2Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice lossDavid M. Chandler0Petra M. Langebroek1Ronja Reese2Torsten Albrecht3Julius Garbe4Ricarda Winkelmann5NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchNORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchGeography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria UniversityPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationAbstract Ice loss from Antarctica’s vast freshwater reservoir could threaten coastal communities and the global economy if the ice volume decreases by just a few percent. Observed changes in mass balance are limited to ~40 years, and are difficult to interpret in the context of an ice sheet with response time scales reaching centuries to millennia. To gain a much longer-term perspective, here we combine transient and equilibrium Parallel Ice Sheet Model simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial-interglacial warming and cooling cycles over the last 800,000 years. We find hysteresis that is caused by the long response time and by crossing of tipping points. Notably, West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse contributes over 4 m sea-level rise in equilibrium ice sheet states with little (0.25 °C) or even no ocean warming above present. Therefore, today we are likely already at (or almost at) an overshoot scenario, supporting recent studies warning of substantial irreversible ice loss with little or no further climate warming.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2 |
| spellingShingle | David M. Chandler Petra M. Langebroek Ronja Reese Torsten Albrecht Julius Garbe Ricarda Winkelmann Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss |
| title_full | Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss |
| title_fullStr | Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss |
| title_full_unstemmed | Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss |
| title_short | Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss |
| title_sort | antarctic ice sheet tipping in the last 800 000 years warns of future ice loss |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT davidmchandler antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss AT petramlangebroek antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss AT ronjareese antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss AT torstenalbrecht antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss AT juliusgarbe antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss AT ricardawinkelmann antarcticicesheettippinginthelast800000yearswarnsoffutureiceloss |