Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling
BackgroundA diet low in whole grains may be a significant risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Therefore, analyzing the latest global burden of disease (GBD) data to understand the burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets is crucial for informing public health policies aimed at reduci...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1572053/full |
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| author | Hongmei Tian Xin Xie Xiaoqing Li Yueshan Pang Jiebin Xie |
| author_facet | Hongmei Tian Xin Xie Xiaoqing Li Yueshan Pang Jiebin Xie |
| author_sort | Hongmei Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundA diet low in whole grains may be a significant risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Therefore, analyzing the latest global burden of disease (GBD) data to understand the burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets is crucial for informing public health policies aimed at reducing CRC-related burdens.MethodsThis study utilized data from the GBD 2021 to analyze global trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low whole-grain diets from 1990–2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the future burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets up to 2050.ResultsIn 2021, the global number of deaths attributable to low whole-grain diets was 186,256.80, representing an 82.94% increase from 1990. The number of global DALYs attributable to low whole-grain diets in 2021 was 4,327,218.86, a 70.30% increase from 1990. The burden of CRC in males attributable to low whole-grain diets was greater than that in females aged 50–74 years. Nationally, Monaco recorded the highest mortality rate (13.23/100,000), China had peak deaths/DALYs. Projections to 2050, the global number of deaths attributable to low whole-grain diets will continue to rise, reaching 199,565.06.ConclusionsLow whole-grain diets pose a significant threat to public health, contributing to an increasing burden of CRC. To reduce the burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets, enhancing public education and awareness of whole-grain diets, implementing policies to promote the consumption of whole grains, and conducting early screening among high-risk populations are recommended. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3cbd95dc9b2a4ddba0ec45b01dd8a3e5 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj-art-3cbd95dc9b2a4ddba0ec45b01dd8a3e52025-08-20T03:13:32ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2025-07-011510.3389/fonc.2025.15720531572053Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modelingHongmei Tian0Xin Xie1Xiaoqing Li2Yueshan Pang3Jiebin Xie4Department of Nursing, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of General Practice, Beijing Anzhen Nanchong Hospital of Capital Medical University and Nanchong Central Hospital, Sichuan, ChinaDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan, ChinaBackgroundA diet low in whole grains may be a significant risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Therefore, analyzing the latest global burden of disease (GBD) data to understand the burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets is crucial for informing public health policies aimed at reducing CRC-related burdens.MethodsThis study utilized data from the GBD 2021 to analyze global trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low whole-grain diets from 1990–2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the future burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets up to 2050.ResultsIn 2021, the global number of deaths attributable to low whole-grain diets was 186,256.80, representing an 82.94% increase from 1990. The number of global DALYs attributable to low whole-grain diets in 2021 was 4,327,218.86, a 70.30% increase from 1990. The burden of CRC in males attributable to low whole-grain diets was greater than that in females aged 50–74 years. Nationally, Monaco recorded the highest mortality rate (13.23/100,000), China had peak deaths/DALYs. Projections to 2050, the global number of deaths attributable to low whole-grain diets will continue to rise, reaching 199,565.06.ConclusionsLow whole-grain diets pose a significant threat to public health, contributing to an increasing burden of CRC. To reduce the burden of CRC attributable to low whole-grain diets, enhancing public education and awareness of whole-grain diets, implementing policies to promote the consumption of whole grains, and conducting early screening among high-risk populations are recommended.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1572053/fullwhole-grain dietsGBDcolon cancerrectal cancerBAPC projection analysisCRC |
| spellingShingle | Hongmei Tian Xin Xie Xiaoqing Li Yueshan Pang Jiebin Xie Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling Frontiers in Oncology whole-grain diets GBD colon cancer rectal cancer BAPC projection analysis CRC |
| title | Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling |
| title_full | Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling |
| title_fullStr | Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling |
| title_short | Global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets: an analysis of GBD 2021 data with Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling |
| title_sort | global burden and projection of colorectal cancer attributable to low whole grain diets an analysis of gbd 2021 data with bayesian age period cohort modeling |
| topic | whole-grain diets GBD colon cancer rectal cancer BAPC projection analysis CRC |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2025.1572053/full |
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