Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature
ABSTRACT In addition to the global mean surface temperature (GMST), accurately predicting regional features associated with GMST changes is essential for effective climate policymaking at the regional level. This study investigates regional patterns of surface temperature and precipitation associate...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1307 |
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| author | Angela Jiang Jonathan H. Jiang Bin Guan |
| author_facet | Angela Jiang Jonathan H. Jiang Bin Guan |
| author_sort | Angela Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT In addition to the global mean surface temperature (GMST), accurately predicting regional features associated with GMST changes is essential for effective climate policymaking at the regional level. This study investigates regional patterns of surface temperature and precipitation associated with interannual GMST variability and evaluates their representation in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Although the influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on GMST variability is well recognized, it accounts for less than 50% of the total interannual variability. A significant portion of GMST warming, independent of ENSO, is closely associated with widespread regional warming—most notably over North America—along with increased atmospheric river activity and enhanced precipitation along its west coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the ENSO‐independent component of GMST variability, thereby introducing uncertainties into our interpretation of GMST changes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3c7d89c5eb9a4e2ea86a2b05523b0c45 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-3c7d89c5eb9a4e2ea86a2b05523b0c452025-08-20T03:30:37ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2025-06-01266n/an/a10.1002/asl.1307Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface TemperatureAngela Jiang0Jonathan H. Jiang1Bin Guan2Arcadia High School Arcadia California USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena California USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena California USAABSTRACT In addition to the global mean surface temperature (GMST), accurately predicting regional features associated with GMST changes is essential for effective climate policymaking at the regional level. This study investigates regional patterns of surface temperature and precipitation associated with interannual GMST variability and evaluates their representation in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Although the influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on GMST variability is well recognized, it accounts for less than 50% of the total interannual variability. A significant portion of GMST warming, independent of ENSO, is closely associated with widespread regional warming—most notably over North America—along with increased atmospheric river activity and enhanced precipitation along its west coast. However, current climate models systematically underestimate the ENSO‐independent component of GMST variability, thereby introducing uncertainties into our interpretation of GMST changes.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1307climate predictionEl Niño‐southern oscillationglobal mean surface temperatureinterannual variability |
| spellingShingle | Angela Jiang Jonathan H. Jiang Bin Guan Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature Atmospheric Science Letters climate prediction El Niño‐southern oscillation global mean surface temperature interannual variability |
| title | Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature |
| title_full | Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature |
| title_fullStr | Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature |
| title_short | Processes Underlying the Year‐To‐Year Fluctuations of the Global Mean Surface Temperature |
| title_sort | processes underlying the year to year fluctuations of the global mean surface temperature |
| topic | climate prediction El Niño‐southern oscillation global mean surface temperature interannual variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1307 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT angelajiang processesunderlyingtheyeartoyearfluctuationsoftheglobalmeansurfacetemperature AT jonathanhjiang processesunderlyingtheyeartoyearfluctuationsoftheglobalmeansurfacetemperature AT binguan processesunderlyingtheyeartoyearfluctuationsoftheglobalmeansurfacetemperature |