Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Abstract Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of del...

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Main Authors: Jianhao Zhang, Yao-Sheng Chen, Edward Gryspeerdt, Takanobu Yamaguchi, Graham Feingold
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-01-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9
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author Jianhao Zhang
Yao-Sheng Chen
Edward Gryspeerdt
Takanobu Yamaguchi
Graham Feingold
author_facet Jianhao Zhang
Yao-Sheng Chen
Edward Gryspeerdt
Takanobu Yamaguchi
Graham Feingold
author_sort Jianhao Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m−2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.
format Article
id doaj-art-3c4fe02dc601433f860e177607f2a004
institution Kabale University
issn 2662-4435
language English
publishDate 2025-01-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Communications Earth & Environment
spelling doaj-art-3c4fe02dc601433f860e177607f2a0042025-01-19T12:40:01ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-01-016111110.1038/s43247-024-01911-9Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detectJianhao Zhang0Yao-Sheng Chen1Edward Gryspeerdt2Takanobu Yamaguchi3Graham Feingold4Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado BoulderCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado BoulderGrantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College LondonCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado BoulderChemical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Abstract Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m−2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9
spellingShingle Jianhao Zhang
Yao-Sheng Chen
Edward Gryspeerdt
Takanobu Yamaguchi
Graham Feingold
Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
Communications Earth & Environment
title Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
title_full Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
title_fullStr Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
title_full_unstemmed Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
title_short Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
title_sort radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9
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AT edwardgryspeerdt radiativeforcingfromthe2020shippingfuelregulationislargebuthardtodetect
AT takanobuyamaguchi radiativeforcingfromthe2020shippingfuelregulationislargebuthardtodetect
AT grahamfeingold radiativeforcingfromthe2020shippingfuelregulationislargebuthardtodetect