Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States
Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/8/25-0451_article |
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| _version_ | 1849251851292114944 |
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| author | Erica Billig Rose Clinton R. Paden Peter W. Cook Kevin C. Ma Amber Winn Juan Castro Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos Benjamin J. Silk |
| author_facet | Erica Billig Rose Clinton R. Paden Peter W. Cook Kevin C. Ma Amber Winn Juan Castro Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos Benjamin J. Silk |
| author_sort | Erica Billig Rose |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein reported to national genomic surveillance during October 2020–September 2024. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 dominant periodicities using a discrete Fourier transform, described S1 variation using the Simpson diversity index (SDI), and estimated Spearman cross-correlation coefficients between percentage change in SDI and percentage positivity. SARS-CoV-2 activity consistently peaked during July–September and December–February, and dominant periodicities were at weeks 52.2 and 26.1. Percentage positivity and percentage change in SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = −0.30; p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 peaks occurred in late summer and winter, a pattern likely related to rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution and cyclical diversity. Monitoring associations between percentage positivity and SDI can help forecast expected surges and optimize prevention and preparedness.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3c4a58d7e64f4dc88347dc290e34a2ce |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-3c4a58d7e64f4dc88347dc290e34a2ce2025-08-20T03:56:49ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592025-08-013181573157910.3201/eid3108.250451Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United StatesErica Billig RoseClinton R. PadenPeter W. CookKevin C. MaAmber WinnJuan CastroLakshmi PanagiotakopoulosBenjamin J. Silk Emergence of antigenically diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants may be correlated with temporal circulation patterns. We analyzed positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in the United States reported to a national, laboratory-based surveillance network and unique amino acid sequences of the S1 region of the spike protein reported to national genomic surveillance during October 2020–September 2024. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 dominant periodicities using a discrete Fourier transform, described S1 variation using the Simpson diversity index (SDI), and estimated Spearman cross-correlation coefficients between percentage change in SDI and percentage positivity. SARS-CoV-2 activity consistently peaked during July–September and December–February, and dominant periodicities were at weeks 52.2 and 26.1. Percentage positivity and percentage change in SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = −0.30; p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2 peaks occurred in late summer and winter, a pattern likely related to rapid SARS-CoV-2 evolution and cyclical diversity. Monitoring associations between percentage positivity and SDI can help forecast expected surges and optimize prevention and preparedness. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/8/25-0451_articleCOVID-19respiratory infectionssevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SARS-CoV-2SARScoronavirus disease |
| spellingShingle | Erica Billig Rose Clinton R. Paden Peter W. Cook Kevin C. Ma Amber Winn Juan Castro Lakshmi Panagiotakopoulos Benjamin J. Silk Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States Emerging Infectious Diseases COVID-19 respiratory infections severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 SARS coronavirus disease |
| title | Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States |
| title_full | Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States |
| title_fullStr | Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States |
| title_short | Estimated COVID-19 Periodicity and Correlation with SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein S1 Antigenic Diversity, United States |
| title_sort | estimated covid 19 periodicity and correlation with sars cov 2 spike protein s1 antigenic diversity united states |
| topic | COVID-19 respiratory infections severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 SARS coronavirus disease |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/31/8/25-0451_article |
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