Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data
Abstract This study examines the demand for legally sold cigarettes in Uruguay from January 1997 to June 2022. Time series analysis reveals that cigarette demand is consistently inelastic, with a price elasticity of – 0.77 and an income elasticity of 0.34. Tobacco control policies—such as 100% smoke...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Discover Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00495-9 |
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| author | Zuleika Ferre Mariana Gerstenblüth Patricia Triunfo |
| author_facet | Zuleika Ferre Mariana Gerstenblüth Patricia Triunfo |
| author_sort | Zuleika Ferre |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This study examines the demand for legally sold cigarettes in Uruguay from January 1997 to June 2022. Time series analysis reveals that cigarette demand is consistently inelastic, with a price elasticity of – 0.77 and an income elasticity of 0.34. Tobacco control policies—such as 100% smoke-free spaces (since March 2006), single presentation (since February 2009), a comprehensive advertising ban (since November 2014), and neutral packaging (since January 2020)—have significantly reduced cigarette demand. While isolating the impact of each policy is challenging, their collective effectiveness in curbing cigarette consumption is evident. In line with the WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, we simulated progressive tax increases from 2024 to 2028. The analysis suggests that a 60% real-term increase in the specific cigarette tax (IMESI) would reduce the smoking population by 8.82%, resulting in 49,000 fewer smokers during the period, and an 18.65% decrease in legal cigarette consumption. Despite an 4.46% decline in real tax revenue between 2022 and 2023, our projections indicate that these tax adjustments could increase tax revenue by 24.35%. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3c39b2aa6db54e25a98c8896a0411804 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 3005-0774 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discover Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-3c39b2aa6db54e25a98c8896a04118042025-08-20T03:02:21ZengSpringerDiscover Public Health3005-07742025-03-0122111210.1186/s12982-025-00495-9Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly dataZuleika Ferre0Mariana Gerstenblüth1Patricia Triunfo2Department of Economics, Social Sciences Faculty, Universidad de la RepúblicaDepartment of Economics, Social Sciences Faculty, Universidad de la RepúblicaDepartment of Economics, Social Sciences Faculty, Universidad de la RepúblicaAbstract This study examines the demand for legally sold cigarettes in Uruguay from January 1997 to June 2022. Time series analysis reveals that cigarette demand is consistently inelastic, with a price elasticity of – 0.77 and an income elasticity of 0.34. Tobacco control policies—such as 100% smoke-free spaces (since March 2006), single presentation (since February 2009), a comprehensive advertising ban (since November 2014), and neutral packaging (since January 2020)—have significantly reduced cigarette demand. While isolating the impact of each policy is challenging, their collective effectiveness in curbing cigarette consumption is evident. In line with the WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, we simulated progressive tax increases from 2024 to 2028. The analysis suggests that a 60% real-term increase in the specific cigarette tax (IMESI) would reduce the smoking population by 8.82%, resulting in 49,000 fewer smokers during the period, and an 18.65% decrease in legal cigarette consumption. Despite an 4.46% decline in real tax revenue between 2022 and 2023, our projections indicate that these tax adjustments could increase tax revenue by 24.35%.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00495-9Times seriesCigaretteTobaccoDemand elasticityIncome elasticitySimulation |
| spellingShingle | Zuleika Ferre Mariana Gerstenblüth Patricia Triunfo Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data Discover Public Health Times series Cigarette Tobacco Demand elasticity Income elasticity Simulation |
| title | Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data |
| title_full | Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data |
| title_fullStr | Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data |
| title_short | Demand for cigarettes in Uruguay: a national analysis with monthly data |
| title_sort | demand for cigarettes in uruguay a national analysis with monthly data |
| topic | Times series Cigarette Tobacco Demand elasticity Income elasticity Simulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00495-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zuleikaferre demandforcigarettesinuruguayanationalanalysiswithmonthlydata AT marianagerstenbluth demandforcigarettesinuruguayanationalanalysiswithmonthlydata AT patriciatriunfo demandforcigarettesinuruguayanationalanalysiswithmonthlydata |