Scenario-based projections of electricity prices in China’s carbon-neutral transition

Summary: China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of ele...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Shurui Wang, Jianlei Mo, Jie Yang, Mingxi Liu, Jiaofeng Pan, Xunpeng Shi, Ye Huang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:iScience
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225012192
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Summary:Summary: China’s carbon neutrality goal by 2060 presents major challenges and opportunities for its electricity market. This study analyzes baseline, low-efficiency, and high-efficiency scenarios to represent potential decarbonization pathways in China up to 2060, aiming to estimate the range of electricity prices for each province. A comprehensive dataset covering 5680 coal power units, 342 hydroelectric plants, 172 gas power stations, 19 nuclear power stations, and various solar and wind farms, provides a solid foundation for a bottom-up calculation approach. The results show that most provinces will see a decline in electricity prices due to technological advancements and optimized power generation. The findings in this research contribute to the academic understanding of regional electricity market dynamics under long-term decarbonization scenarios and offer a quantitative basis for evaluating policy impacts on future electricity pricing.
ISSN:2589-0042