Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees

The inference of population dynamics from molecular sequence data is becoming an important new method for the surveillance of infectious diseases. Here, we examine how heterogeneity in contact shapes the genealogies of parasitic agents. Using extensive simulations, we find that contact heterogeneity...

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Main Authors: Eamon B. O'Dea, Claus O. Wilke
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2011-01-01
Series:Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/238743
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author Eamon B. O'Dea
Claus O. Wilke
author_facet Eamon B. O'Dea
Claus O. Wilke
author_sort Eamon B. O'Dea
collection DOAJ
description The inference of population dynamics from molecular sequence data is becoming an important new method for the surveillance of infectious diseases. Here, we examine how heterogeneity in contact shapes the genealogies of parasitic agents. Using extensive simulations, we find that contact heterogeneity can have a strong effect on how the structure of genealogies reflects epidemiologically relevant quantities such as the proportion of a population that is infected. Comparing the simulations to BEAST reconstructions, we also find that contact heterogeneity can increase the number of sequence isolates required to estimate these quantities over the course of an epidemic. Our results suggest that data about contact-network structure will be required in addition to sequence data for accurate estimation of a parasitic agent's genealogy. We conclude that network models will be important for progress in this area.
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series Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
spelling doaj-art-3c25a7bf7f9346abbefde77af0e11fed2025-08-20T02:08:16ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-708X1687-70982011-01-01201110.1155/2011/238743238743Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary TreesEamon B. O'Dea0Claus O. Wilke1Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USASection of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USAThe inference of population dynamics from molecular sequence data is becoming an important new method for the surveillance of infectious diseases. Here, we examine how heterogeneity in contact shapes the genealogies of parasitic agents. Using extensive simulations, we find that contact heterogeneity can have a strong effect on how the structure of genealogies reflects epidemiologically relevant quantities such as the proportion of a population that is infected. Comparing the simulations to BEAST reconstructions, we also find that contact heterogeneity can increase the number of sequence isolates required to estimate these quantities over the course of an epidemic. Our results suggest that data about contact-network structure will be required in addition to sequence data for accurate estimation of a parasitic agent's genealogy. We conclude that network models will be important for progress in this area.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/238743
spellingShingle Eamon B. O'Dea
Claus O. Wilke
Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
title Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
title_full Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
title_fullStr Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
title_full_unstemmed Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
title_short Contact Heterogeneity and Phylodynamics: How Contact Networks Shape Parasite Evolutionary Trees
title_sort contact heterogeneity and phylodynamics how contact networks shape parasite evolutionary trees
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/238743
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AT clausowilke contactheterogeneityandphylodynamicshowcontactnetworksshapeparasiteevolutionarytrees