Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA

Abstract This study introduces a new modeling paradigm called gravity-networked spatial interaction zones-based spatial panel modeling (GSIZs-Spanel). Using Detroit as a case study, this paper investigates urban shrinkage by integrating shrinkage driving factors, their regional interactions, network...

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Main Authors: Xiaoliang Meng, Yichun Xie, Andrew Crooks, Junyi Wu, Heather Khan Welsh, Shi Zeng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:npj Urban Sustainability
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00245-5
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author Xiaoliang Meng
Yichun Xie
Andrew Crooks
Junyi Wu
Heather Khan Welsh
Shi Zeng
author_facet Xiaoliang Meng
Yichun Xie
Andrew Crooks
Junyi Wu
Heather Khan Welsh
Shi Zeng
author_sort Xiaoliang Meng
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study introduces a new modeling paradigm called gravity-networked spatial interaction zones-based spatial panel modeling (GSIZs-Spanel). Using Detroit as a case study, this paper investigates urban shrinkage by integrating shrinkage driving factors, their regional interactions, networks of cities, spatial processes, and longitudinal dynamics. Results suggest that high minority population concentration and persistent poverty are the primary factors impacting Detroit’s inner-city shrinkage. Demographics, economics, and development practices affect shrinkage in suburbs and surrounding cities. Shrinkage spreads outwards like waves; different juxtapositions of driving factors affect shrinkage resilience; spillover effects are particularly vibrant at 25–50 GSIZs; rightsizing is a rational strategy, but it failed to work alone. Integrating spatial planning of driving factors, land uses, spillover effects, rightsizing strategy, and regional collaboration among federal, regional, and local organizations could moderate urban decline. GSIZs-Spanel, which was developed here, could be applied in any U.S. city or other global city.
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spelling doaj-art-3bf401663ec540d6a7b6fd94c67d8b022025-08-20T03:05:21ZengNature Portfolionpj Urban Sustainability2661-80012025-07-015111410.1038/s42949-025-00245-5Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USAXiaoliang Meng0Yichun Xie1Andrew Crooks2Junyi Wu3Heather Khan Welsh4Shi Zeng5School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Geography and Geology, Eastern Michigan UniversityDepartment of Geography, University at BuffaloSchool of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan UniversityDepartment of Geography and Geology, Eastern Michigan UniversityCentre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College LondonAbstract This study introduces a new modeling paradigm called gravity-networked spatial interaction zones-based spatial panel modeling (GSIZs-Spanel). Using Detroit as a case study, this paper investigates urban shrinkage by integrating shrinkage driving factors, their regional interactions, networks of cities, spatial processes, and longitudinal dynamics. Results suggest that high minority population concentration and persistent poverty are the primary factors impacting Detroit’s inner-city shrinkage. Demographics, economics, and development practices affect shrinkage in suburbs and surrounding cities. Shrinkage spreads outwards like waves; different juxtapositions of driving factors affect shrinkage resilience; spillover effects are particularly vibrant at 25–50 GSIZs; rightsizing is a rational strategy, but it failed to work alone. Integrating spatial planning of driving factors, land uses, spillover effects, rightsizing strategy, and regional collaboration among federal, regional, and local organizations could moderate urban decline. GSIZs-Spanel, which was developed here, could be applied in any U.S. city or other global city.https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00245-5
spellingShingle Xiaoliang Meng
Yichun Xie
Andrew Crooks
Junyi Wu
Heather Khan Welsh
Shi Zeng
Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
npj Urban Sustainability
title Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
title_full Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
title_fullStr Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
title_full_unstemmed Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
title_short Examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage: evidence from Detroit, USA
title_sort examining spatial expansion and stemming strategies of urban shrinkage evidence from detroit usa
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-025-00245-5
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